Adaptive Management Committee: 2025 Performance Indicators Online Survey
Introduction
The International Joint Commission (IJC) has committed to review the Rule Curves, or rules governing dam operation, used for water level regulation of Namakan Lake and Rainy Lake every 15 years. To monitor and assess the performance of the existing rule curves, established in 2018, the Adaptive Management Committee of the International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board (IRLWWB) collects and considers information that may indicate the effect of these rule curves on water levels and flows, and how they have impacted interests across the basin.
An important tool used to evaluate the performance of the rule curves is the Integrated Socio-Economic and Environmental (ISEE) model. This model can simulate water levels and flows from the Namakan Reservoir through to the Rainy River and quantify their impacts on a variety of elements. In the ISEE model, these elements are named “Performance Indicators.”
We need information from you! At this mid-point in the 15-year review cycle, the Adaptive Management Committee is seeking to gather feedback on certain prospective Performance Indicators to evaluate their priority and assess their potential monitoring and modelling needs. As basin residents and users, Indigenous community members, stakeholders, resource advisors and scientists, your knowledge is critical to helping us gather information and prioritize these Performance Indicators.
Survey instructions
In this survey, each section will describe the Performance Indicator for which we are seeking feedback. You can first rank the priority or importance of the indicator and then provide any feedback in the text box. Feedback can include first-hand observations, results of scientific studies, reasons for interest or importance, or information on existing/planned/proposed monitoring. If you have no information for a particular Indicator, kindly move to the next one.
The responses received from this survey will be used at a workshop planned for summer 2025, where attendees from across the basin representing a variety of interests will discuss the feedback received and collaborate to plan potential modelling and monitoring work.
Each Performance Indicator will have two questions:
- What priority ranking would you give this Performance Indicator? (Options: very high, high, medium, low, unknown);
- Do you have any feedback, including first-hand observations, results of scientific studies, reasons for interest or importance, or information on existing/planned/proposed monitoring related to this Performance Indicator?
Performance Indicator Descriptions
Yellow Perch Mercury Concentration
Mercury concentrations in fish, and specifically for this Performance Indicator, in first year yellow perch, have been monitored for decades in Rainy Lake and the five lakes of Namakan Reservoir. This can be considered an index of the amount of mercury entering the aquatic food web in these lakes each year, and how it may fluctuate with changing water levels has been studied on the five lakes of Namakan Reservoir and Rainy Lake. Data analysis and modeling have shown a relationship between water level fluctuation and mercury concentrations in first year yellow perch; however, more work is required to resolve some inconsistency in models.
Young-of-the-year walleye, northern pike, and yellow perch (First-year Fish)
A Performance Indicator to assess the relationship between water level fluctuations and the number young-of-the-year northern pike, walleye, and yellow perch could be developed using existing datasets and by expanding to other sampling sites. Focusing on this early life stage of these ecologically and socioeconomically important species would allow managers to consider the influence of lake level management on them with less of the confounding influence of other factors that affect fish of these species as they mature such as harvest, availability of food, and predation.
Invertebrate Community
The 2018 Rule Curves have been predicted to improve conditions for invertebrates on the Rainy River due to the more stable hydrological conditions. Conducting a study to support development of a Performance Indicator on this topic might be helpful in assessing whether intended benefits of the 2018 Rule Curves have occurred. At a minimum, the information generated could be used in a weight of evidence analysis.
Flood Damage
How water levels are managed has a direct but limited impact on potential flooding and damage to infrastructure. There is an existing Performance Indicator that uses flood-damage curves to determine the extent and severity of flooding on Rainy Lake and the lakes of Namakan Reservoir. These curves are developed using a database of structure locations and elevations, which needs to be reviewed and updated. There is also potential to develop a similar performance indicator for the Rainy River – this would require data collection on the infrastructure along the river, including elevations.
Cultural Resources (including gravesites, pictographs and archeological resources)
A Performance Indicator based on shoreline erosion exists for cultural resources on the lakes of Namakan Reservoir and Rainy Lake. There is a need for additional information on the location of archeological resources, and especially for sites located along the Rainy River where an additional performance indicator for cultural resource could be developed.
Wild Rice Productivity
There is an existing Performance Indicator for survival of wild rice seedlings. This Performance Indicator also compares the extent of suitable habitat for wild rice growth to invasive hybrid cattails, which have prevented wild rice from growing in many areas. A new Performance Indicator could be developed to better understand the relationship between water level fluctuations and wild rice production, and this would require additional data collection. The modeling could also be improved by collecting more information on historical growth ranges of wild rice in the Rainy Lake – Namakan Reservoir system.
Fall Navigation for Wild Rice Harvest
Low water levels are known to impact the ability to harvest wild rice in the fall. Information on wild rice growing areas and harvest routes is required to adapt an existing Performance Indicator for navigation on Namakan Reservoir and Rainy Lake to include navigation conditions for wild rice harvest.
Riparian Trees
The root systems of tree stands that grow close to shorelines, such as sugar maple and birch, may be at risk of being consistently flooded. This can impact the health and survival of the trees.
Herptiles (reptiles and amphibians)
There is not currently a performance indicator for turtles or any other herptiles for the Rainy – Namakan system. However, the modeling team has models for turtles in other systems that could potentially be adapted to create a performance indicator model for herptiles in the Rainy – Namakan system if this is identified as a priority.
Ducks
There is currently a performance indicator model for common loon reproductive success on Rainy Lake and Namakan Reservoir, but there is not a performance indicator model for ducks on these lakes. There are, however, performance indicator models for waterfowl habitat for spring migration and waterfowl habitat for reproduction for another system. These existing models could potentially be adapted to create similar performance indicator models for the Rainy - Namakan system if this is identified as a priority.
General questions
Do you have any ideas for new performance indicators that were not listed in this survey? Please remember that these indicators must be affected by water level fluctuations on the lakes of Namakan Reservoir, Rainy Lake or Rainy River.
Do you have any feedback to provide on any of the existing performance indicators that were used in the last Rule Curve Study?
Survey
Follow this link for the survey: https://forms.office.com/r/8SXZqx8dju?origin=lprLink