A recently completed study simulated potential low-flow conditions in the Red River basin, which flows north into Lake Winnipeg from the North Dakota-Minnesota border. The river is located in a region of the continent that is susceptible to dry conditions, which have the potential to adversely affect water supplies, agricultural production and ecological conditions.
The study, conducted by the US Geological Survey (USGS) with assistance from the International Joint Commission (IJC), the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, Manitoba Environment and Climate Change, the Red River Joint Water Resource District, and the Red River Watershed Management Board, combined a computer model of the river’s water system with different weather scenarios. Work got underway in 2019 and concluded in early 2025 with the publication of the final report. The study is intended to help water managers better understand the dynamics of the basin.
To build out the computer model of the Red River, USGS researchers used data from 37 USGS streamgages from 1940 through 2000, verifying its performance with more recent data from 2001-2015. According to the report, this also simulated the Red River’s seasonal changes in streamflow, notably matching up closely to the recorded low-flow fall and winter months.
Once this model had been completed, tested, and verified to be accurate against historical data, the researchers ran it against multiple future climate and weather scenarios. These were also coupled with three different experiments to test specific scenarios.
The first experiment tested the model against different reservoir management scenarios, including present-day operations, a “no reservoir” scenario, and a regulated river flow scenario with a 10 percent increase in reservoir capacity. In the scenario with the increased reservoir capacity, flows during high-intensity drought scenarios saw a smaller reduction range specifically in the Emerson subbasin due to the extra reservoir capacity.
The second experiment included two scenarios to understand how the Red River basin responds to long periods of either high or low precipitation. While the model consistently overestimated flows in the river, the relative change between these wet and dry conditions matched up to relative change between historical wet and dry years. Overall, the model appeared to be most accurate in low-streamflow conditions.
The third and final experiment investigated how low river flows would respond to multiple drought scenarios, including high and low-intensity scenarios. Streamflows on the low end were reduced at greater magnitudes during longer or more intense droughts, though the range of these reduced flows was greater for high-intensity droughts depending on what part of the Red River basin was examined. The Grand Forks and Emerson subbasins had smaller reduction ranges due to having larger drainage areas and greater contributions from typically wetter Minnesota tributaries, such as the Red Lake River.
The results of this study are helpful to the IJC’s International Red River Watershed Board, which is required under its directive to study issues of flooding, drought, resilience and adaptation connected to the Red River’s aquatic ecosystem, and to encourage governments to utilize its findings when managing the watershed.
The study was supported through the IJC’s International Watersheds Initiative.
Kevin Bunch is a writer-communications specialist at the IJC’s US Section office in Washington, D.C. and serves as the executive editor for the Shared Waters newsletter.
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