^1. Information on the 1999 Great Lakes Water Quality Forum, September 23-26, 1999 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is available on the IJC web site at http://www.ijc.org./milwaukee/index.html.

^2. Some environmentalists feel that cost/benefit analysis (or "risk/benefit analysis") "is the invention of those who do not wish to regulate, or to be regulated, and ..its primary use in governmental decision-making is to avoid taking action which is necessary or desirable in order to protect the health of the public or the integrity of the environment." Burke Zimmerman, "Risk-Benefit Analysis: The Cop-out of Government Regulation," Trial (February 1978), p. 14, quoted in Steven E. Rhoads, The Economist's View of the World: Government, Markets, & Public Policy (New York: Cambridge Uni. Press, 1985), p. 132. The business community, on the other hand, usually views the cost/benefit analyses, or "economic impact statements," attached to regulatory proposals with the same skepticism with which environmentalists view environmental impact statements. They seem to be no more than ad hoc justifications for policies already decided upon for political purposes.

^3. See Geoffrey M. Hodgson, Economics and Evolution: Bringing Life Back into Economics (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1996).

^4. A survey conducted by the Great Lakes Commission Panel on Aquatic Nuisance Species found that less than 5% of the money spent on research related to exotics in the Great Lakes was focused on prevention of new invasions. Projects were divided into 6 general categories, (1) biology and life history, (2) control and mitigation, (3) ecosystem effects, (4) prevention of introductions, socio-economic considerations and analysis, and (6) spread of established populations. "Forty percent of all projects fall within the Ecosystems Effects research category, with zebra mussel research accounting for 58 percent of total research expenditures. Projects in the Prevention of Introduction category account for only four percent of total research expenditures." GLC ANS Panel, Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Relevant to the Great Lakes Basin: Research Guidance and Descriptive Inventory (Ann Arbor, MI: GLC, June 18, 1997), p. 5.

^5. Edward L. Mills, Spencer R. Hall, and Nijole K. Pauliukonis, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: From Science to Policy," Great Lakes Research Review (February 1998), vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 1-7, 1. On the overall history of invasions of the Great Lakes, see also Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 1-54; and E.J. Crossman, "Introduced Freshwater Fishes: A Review of the North American Perspective with Emphasis on Canada," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), 46-57.

^6. Re the legal definition of "pollution" as something including "biological material" or doing damage to "biological integrity," see the detailed review of US and Canadian statutes in Eric Reeves, Analysis of Laws & Policies Concerning Exotic Invasions of the Great Lakes, a report commissioned by MDEQ OGL (Lansing, MI: MDEQ OGL, March 15, 1999). Re the economic theory, see § 10 of this paper.

^7. William Ashworth, The Late Great Lakes: An Environmental History (Detroit, MI: Wayne State University, 1987), p. 120.

^8. The current Great Lakes fisheries, made up in large part of artificially stocked salmonids (and other fish) to compensate for the loss of the native whitefish and trout, are worth several billion dollars per year. Christopher I. Goddard, Executive Secretary, Great Lakes Fishery Commission, circular letter (July 8, 1997). One can argue that this replaces the original resource, and that the true cost of the lamprey is therefore only the cost of lamprey control measures plus the cost to the various agencies around the lakes of the stocking programs. It is unlikely, however, that these actually replace the abundance of the original populations. Despite the control measures, the lamprey continues to do substantial damage in some areas. The artificially stocked populations may be inherently fragile. And there are long-term costs in terms of disruptions of the ecosystem from the artificially stocked fish, no matter how good they are for fishing. See § 2.4, below, re intentional releases.

^9. The burbot (not a valuable commercial species) declined along with the whitefish and lake trout. High sea lamprey scarring rates on catostomids (suckers), walleye, and rainbow trout were reported frequently and fisheries for these species were also drastically reduced. After the lake trout and burbot were largely gone, the lamprey was forced to turn to the larger cisco species. By 1960-1961, the two largest species, Coregonus johannae and C. nigripinnis, were reduced to extinction or nearly so. Four other cisco species were seriously depleted. The bloater, C. hoyi, smallest of the cisco species, became abundant as the predators disappeared. In the late 1940s, another exotic from the Atlantic Ocean, the alewife, entered Lakes Huron and Michigan, and flourished because of the absence of large predators. The alewife soon affected the species composition of those lakes, greatly reducing the abundance of many species, including the bloater, lake herring, yellow perch, and emerald shiner. B.R Smith and J.J. Tibbles, "Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in Lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior: History of Invasion and Control, 1936-78," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1980), vol. 37, pp. 1780-1801.

^10. Christopher I. Goddard, Executive Secretary, Great Lakes Fishery Commission, circular letter (July 8, 1997).

^11. The biocide is 3-trifluormethyl-4-nitrophenol, or TFM. The average annual use of TFM during 1980-89 was 52,000 kilograms and for 1990-96 was 40,000 kilograms. Target use for the year 2000 is 26,000 kilograms. Gerald T. Klar, Integrated Management of Sea Lampreys in The Great Lakes 1996: 1996 Annual Report to the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (Marquette, MI: US Fish & Wildlife Service, 1996). The Great Lakes Fishery Commission is working to reduce the use of biocides, hopefully by as much as 50%, by use of alternative control measures such as river barriers and release of sterile males. Goddard, ibid.

^12. Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 1-54.

^13. US Public Law 101-646 (November 29, 1990), codified at 16 USC §§  4701 et seq.

^14. US Public Law 104-332 (October 26, 1996), making amendments to the Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act of 1990, US Public Law 101-646 (November 29, 1990), codified at 16 USC  §§ 4701 et seq. Technically, the act is still "NANPCA" after the amendments by "NISA" in 1996. But "NISA" is being rapidly adopted as the popular name of the current law, if for no other reason than the fact that it is much easier to remember and pronounce.

^15. David Pimentel, "Environmental and Economic Costs Associated with Non-indigenous Species in the United States," unpublished paper presented to the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anaheim, California, January 24, 1999.

^16. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Environment Canada, State of the Great Lakes 1997 (Chicago, IL, and Burlington, ON: EPA and EC, 1997), p. 22.

^17. EPA and EC, ibid., p. 23.

^18. See Glenn Zorpette, "Mussel Mayhem Continued: Apparent Benefits of the Zebra Mussel Plague are Anything But," Scientific American (August 1996), vol. 275, no. 2, pp. 22-23.

^19. Mike McLean, Minnesota Sea Grant Communications Coordinator, Minnesota Sea Grant web site at http://www.d.umn.edu/seagr/areas/exotic/ruffe.html (accessed July 14, 1999).

^20. L. J. Hushak, "Economics of Ruffe in the Great Lakes," Proceedings of the International Symposium on Biology and Management of Ruffe, March 21-23, 1997.

^21. Thomas R. Busiahn, "Ruffe Control: A Case Study of an Aquatic Nuisance Species Control Program," in Frank M. D'Itri, Zebra Mussels and Aquatic Nuisance Species (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1997), p. 80.

^22. Busiahn, ibid., pp. 84-5.

^23. Lythrum salicaria, a robust aquatic weed which squeezes out other plants and animals, first recorded in 1869, apparently introduced by railroads or canals. Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 1-54.

^24. Alosa pseudoharengus, a garbage fish, prone to cataclysmic blooms and dieoffs, but with some use as feed stock, recorded in 1873. Like the lamprey, this may have been native to Lake Ontario, but apparently was introduced from the Atlantic by canals. Mills, et al. (1993), ibid.

^25. Aeromonas salmonicida, a bacterium pathogenic to fish, introduced to the Great Lakes, perhaps from Germany, by an unknown vector, sometime before 1902. Mills, et al. (1993), ibid.

^26. Myriophyllum spicatum, a robust aquatic weed which squeezes out other plants and animals, and also alters water temperature, spread from the Atlantic sometime before 1952, apparently by either aquarium release or transport in vessels. Mills, et al. (1993), ibid.

^27. A protozoan fish parasite, discovered in 1960, apparently introduced with its host, rainbow smelt, which was intentionally stocked in 1912. Mills, et al. (1993), ibid.

^28. Mills, et al. (1993), ibid., especially Figure 6, p. 43. On the overall history of invasions of the Great Lakes, see also E.J. Crossman, "Introduced Freshwater Fishes: A Review of the North American Perspective with Emphasis on Canada," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), 46-57.

^29. "Despite recent advances in our understanding of ballast-mediated transfer and invasion for marine species, microbial organisms have been virtually ignored in all ballast water and invasion research to date. In contrast to research on macro-plankton (organisms >60-80 microns): (1) patterns of microbial abundance and diversity associated with ballast water have not been measured; (2) we know virtually nothing about the dynamics, risk of invasions, or actual patterns of invasion for micro-organisms entrained in ballast tanks; (3) the impacts or potential impacts associated with invasions of micro-organisms have only been considered for a few species, although key information is still lacking; and (4) the efficacy of currently favored ballast management practices (to reduce the introduction of macro-plankton) has not been evaluated for micro-organisms. Yet, it is micro-organisms that are most abundant in the environment, arrive in the greatest numbers in ballast tanks, and probably have the greatest chances of survival. In addition, these organisms can have significant ecological and economic impacts on invaded communities." Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC) Marine Invasions Research Laboratory "Chesapeake Bay Research Overview Chesapeake Bay Research Overview" at http://www.serc.si.edu/invasions/chesoverview.htm (accessed July 15, 1999).

^30. Office of Technology Assessment, Harmful Non-Indigenous Species in the United States (Washington DC: US Government Printing Office, 1993), p. 3, Table 1-1, and p. 5.

^31. David Pimentel, "Environmental and Economic Costs Associated with Non-indigenous Species in the United States," unpublished paper presented to the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anaheim, California, January 24, 1999. Some of these figures need to be read with caution. For example, the Cornell study included the costs from domestic cats, which can certainly carry serious diseases and kill birds, but which have historically served a valuable economic function (quite aside from their considerable aesthetic value) in controlling human diseases and damage to grains caused by rats and other pests. (Economic costs of exotic rats came in at $19 billion per year.) However, few such compensatory qualities can be claimed for zebra mussels, the Asiatic clam, nuisance fishes, and aquatic nuisance plants.

^32. Pimentel, ibid. Cost of "aquatic plants" via personal communication from Dr. Pimentel.

^33. Convention on Biological Diversity adopted at Rio by the UN Conference on Environment and Development, "Earth Summit," June 5, 1992, article 8, §§ (g)-(h). The convention has been ratified by Canada, December 4, 1992, and signed for the United States, June 4, 1993, but not yet ratified by the US Senate. The text is available from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biodiversity, Montreal, at www.biodiv.org.

^34. James T. Carlton, "Biological Invasions and Biodiversity in the Sea: The Ecological and Human Impacts of Nonindigenous Marine and Estuarine Organisms," in Nonindigenous Estuarine & Marine Organisms (NEMO), proceedings of workshop at Seattle, Washington, April 1993 (Washington DC: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 1993), p. 8.

^35. David S. Wilcove, David Rothstein, Jason Dubow, Ali Phillips, and Elizabeth Losos, "Quantifying Threats to Imperiled Species in the United States," Bioscience (August 1998), vol. 48, no. 8, pp. 607-615.

^36. Bruce A Stein and Stephanie R. Flack, eds., America's Least Wanted: Alien Species Invasions of U.S. Ecosystems (Arlington, VA: The Nature Conservancy, 1996).

^37. US Public Law 101-380 (August 18, 1990), which made amendments to the Clean Water Act (Federal Water Pollution Control Act), 33 USC §§ 1251 et seq., and other places.

^38. The Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council web site, at www.oilspill.state.ak.us (accessed June 28, 1999).

^39. This discussion is based on the seminal work in Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 1-54, and Edward L. Mills, Spencer R. Hall, and Nijole K. Pauliukonis, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: From Science to Policy," Great Lakes Research Review (February 1998), vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 1-7.

^40. Mills et al. (1998), ibid., pp. 1-7, 3.

^41. Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force, Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations of the Intentional Introductions Policy Review, report to Congress (Washington, DC: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, March 1994), p. i.

^42. See W.L. Shelton and R.O. Smitherman, "Exotic Fishes in Warmwater Aquaculture," in W.R. Courtenay, Jr. and J.R. Stauffer, Jr., ed., Distribution, Biology, and Management of Exotic Fishes (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University, 1984), pp. 262-301.

^43. C.C. Krueger and B. May, "Ecological and Genetic Effects of Salmonid Introductions in North America," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp. 66-77; David O. Evans and Campbell C. Willox, "Loss of Exploited, Indigenous Populations of Lake Trout, Salvenlinus namaycush, by Stocking of Non-Native Stocks," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp. 134-147; Paul J. Wingate, "US State's View and Regulations on Fish Introductions," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp. 167-170.

^44. C.C. Krueger and B. May, ibid., p. 74.

^45. Mills, et al. (1993), and Mills, et al. (1998).

^46. "Cosmopolitan," which many of us think of as a good thing when referring to human societies which are more open and varied because of global influences, is an implicitly pejorative term of art in biology for the contamination of a local ecosystem to the point where it has lost its unique character. It also refers, without any positive or negative implication, to a species which is wide-spread around the world from either natural or anthropomorphic causes.

^47. Brian Morton, "The Aquatic Nuisance Species Problem: A Global Perspective and Review," in Frank M. D'Itri, Zebra Mussels and Aquatic Nuisance Species (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1997), pp. 1-54, 16.

^48. Marlise Simons, "Mutant Seaweed Threatens Mediterranean Marine Life," The Globe and Mail (August 19, 1997).

^49. Edward L. Mills, Spencer R. Hall, and Nijole K. Pauliukonis, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: From Science to Policy," Great Lakes Research Review (February 1998), vol. 3, no. 2, p. 1-7, 4, figure 2.

^50. Mills, et. al (1998), ibid., p. 2, figure 1.

^51. Indeed, in both environmental studies and economics (as well as other fields) one usually expects to see the classic "bell curve" of distributions or "S-curves" of expansion and stabilization, both due to natural limits to growth and negative feedback mechanisms - systemic tendencies toward equilibrium. But that does not give one any basis for predicting ahead of time where that decline or point of inflection will occur. "In the long run, it will all work out," economists were once found of saying, and the paleontologist Stephen J. Gould certainly agrees with that. But, as the economist John Maynard Keynes pointed out, and Gould emphasizes today with regard to environmental recovery, "In the long run, we are all dead." Keynes quoted in Robert L. Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times and Ideas of the Great Economic Thinkers (New York: Touchstone, 6^th ed., 1986), p. 263. Gould makes the point about the likelihood of the long-term recovery of the planet Earth, and the irrelevance of that to the fate of the human species, in Stephen Jay Gould, Eight Little Piggies: Reflections in Natural History (New York: W.W. Norton, 1993), pp. 50-51. Moreover, the response to a disturbance, the way that the system finds a new equilibrium, can be decidedly "catastrophic" in both a mathematical and common sense. See illustrations from both biology and economics in Alexander Woodcock and Monte Davis, Catastrophe Theory (New York: Avon, 1978).

^52. The US Coast Guard "Shipping Study" on ballast water, conducted under mandate from NANPCA 90 and published in 1995, identified 6 various creatures, both salt and freshwater, around the ports of the world, which are prime candidates for future invasion of North America via ballast water precisely because they have already demonstrated an ability to invade other ecosystems. James T. Carlton, Donald M. Reid, and Henry van Leeuwen, The Role of Shipping in the Introduction of Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms to the Coastal Waters of the United States (other than the Great Lakes) and an Analysis of Control Options, Shipping Study I, USCG Report No. CG-D-11-95 (Springfield, VA: National Technical Information Service, April 1995), p. 102, Box 5-2.

^53. Anthony Ricciardi and Joseph B. Rasmussen, "Predicting the Identity and Impact of Future Biological Invaders: A Priority for Aquatic Resource Management" Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (July 1998), vol. 55, no. 7, pp. 1759-65.

^54. See Adaptations, Newsletter of the Binational Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin Project (1996), vol. 1, issue 1, on line at www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/other/glslb/adaptations.v1.1.html.

^55. Among others, A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991); and Aquatic Sciences, Examination of Aquatic Nuisance Species Introductions to the Great Lakes through Commercial Shipping Ballast Water and Assessment of Control Options, Phase II Final Report, ASI Project E9225/E9285 (St. Catherines, ON: Aquatic Sciences, August 1996).

^56. Re aquaculture, one critic has said that "The pressure exerted by this industry to have the right to farm any species regardless of possible negative outcomes is awesome." Paul J. Wingate, "US State's View and Regulations on Fish Introductions," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp. 167-170, 168. Wingate expresses specific concerns about disease and genetic changes. See also the discussion in § 4 of this paper below.

^57. See R.W. Doyle, N.L. Shackel, Z. Basiao, S. Uraiwan, T. Matricia, and A.J. Tolbot, "Selective Diversification of Aquaculture Stocks: A Proposal for Economically Sustainable Genetic Conservation," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp. 148-154.

^58. This is the focus of a study currently being conducted by Dr. Douglas Jensen, Minnesota Sea Grant, and Dr. Ron Kinnunen, Michigan Sea Grant.

^59. The Baltic Exchange, London, at www.balticexchange.com (accessed July 1, 1999).

^60. Marine Board, National Research Council, Stemming the Tide: Controlling Introductions of Nonindigenous Species by Ship's Ballast Water (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996), p. 1.

^61. See Paul S. Clyde and James D. Reitzes, "Market Power and Collusion in the Ocean Shipping Industry: Is a Bigger Cartel a Better Cartel?" Economic Inquiry (April 1998), vol. 36, pp. 292-304; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, Report No. 105-61 on S. 414, Ocean Shipping Reform Act [Public Law 105-258 (October 14, 1998), amending 46 USC App. § 1701 et seq.] (July 31, 1997).

^62. Barry Rogliano Salles, Annual Review of World Shipping and Shipbuilding: 1998 Mid-Year Update, (Paris: BRS, November 4, 1998).

^63. See Dr. Nikos Mikelis, Director, Lyras Shipping Ltd, "Merchant Shipping Into The Next Millennium," speech to the London Maritime Association & Royal Institution Of Naval Architects Joint Seminar, at the Baltic Exchange, October 22, 1996, available at www.shipshape.net (accessed July 1, 1999).

^64. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, Report No. 105-61 on S. 414, Ocean Shipping Reform Act [Public Law 105-258 (October 14, 1998), amending 46 USC App. § 1701 et seq.] (July 31, 1997), pp. 1-3.

^65. The conference agreements, which have special immunity from anti-trust laws, create a partial monopoly or limited "market power" (power to control prices, among other things) mitigated by the lack of exclusive control of the trade by the conferences and the ability of members to defect from the conferences, subject to certain rules. One economic analysis has found that the evidence for strong market power exercised the shipping conferences is "at best, mixed." Paul S. Clyde and James D. Reitzes, "Market Power and Collusion in the Ocean Shipping Industry: Is a Bigger Cartel a Better Cartel?" Economic Inquiry (April 1998), vol. 36, pp. 292-304, 302. However, they add that "one should not conclude from our results that liner carriers behave competitively." Ibid., p. 303. Part of the apparent lack of ability to control prices indicated in that study may be due to the considerable over-capacity of world shipping, due to other national policies promoting and subsidizing shipping. Shipping rates vary dramatically over relatively short periods of time, despite both government and private policies to control competition, because there are so many ships chasing available cargo. See discussion in Clyde and Reitzes, ibid.; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, ibid. In other words, it may be that there is a strong market power effect, but that effect is manifest in the oversupply rather than control over prices. From the point of view of shippers, that is the more rational place to exert market (and political) power. Getting rich is great. But staying in business is even better.

^66. Michael G. Parsons, Russell Moll, Thomas P. Mackey, and Rendall B. Farley, Great Lakes Ballast Demonstration Project -- Phase I (Ann Arbor, MI: Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystem Research, University of Michigan, 1997), p. 18, table III-2 (1995 statistics). About 10% are tankers, and about 10% are "general cargo carriers," which includes container ships and break bulk carriers.

^67. The shipping industry speaks in terms of English "long tons" or metric "tonnes" of cargo and water, and also of cubic meters (m³) of water. Tons or tonnes are most relevant to cargo carrying capacity, because cargo is usually limited by weight, which in turn affects the weight of ballast needed, and the weight of ballast affecting stability and hull integrity. Quantity, on the other hand, is more directly related to pumping or treatment capacity. The most useful shorthand for both cargo and ballast is the metric tonne, a mass of 1,000 kilograms (2,205 pounds), which is a rough approximation of a volume of one cubic meter (m³) of water because the metric system relation between mass and volume was originally based on the weight of water, although that varies with temperature and salinity. (Just to confuse the issue, a cubic meter of seawater, which is heavier, is closer to an English long ton.) A metric tonne of mass is equal to 1.102 English short or net tons (2,000 pounds) and 0.98 English long or gross tons (2,240 pounds). US civil engineers (such as those dealing with water in waste water treatment plants) tend to speak in terms of gallons or cubic feet of water. A cubic meter (m³) equals 264 gallons or 35 cubic feet.

^68. The maximum Seaway dimensions are 225.5 meters (740 feet) length by 23.7 meters (78 feet) beam by 8.0 meters (26 feet, 3 inches) draft by 35.5 meters (116.5 feet) "air draft" (clearance under bridges). Some of the "handymax" bulkers around 35,000 DWT just squeeze in by offloading some of their cargo at or below Montreal in order to come up on draft.

^69. See Everett C. Hunt and Boris S. Butman, Marine Engineering and Economics Cost Analysis (Centreville, MD: Cornell Maritime Press, 1995), pp. 1-4, 1-11, figure 1-4.

^70. See Carlton et al. (1995), ibid., pp. 68-9.

^71. Christopher J. Wiley, "Aquatic Nuisance Species: Nature, Transport, and Regulation," in Frank M. D'Itri, Zebra Mussels and Aquatic Nuisance Species (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1997), pp. 55-63, 59. One survey of vessels calling on US coastal ports found that ballast water capacity was 0.38 of DWT for all classes of large commercial vessels, 0.32 for container ships, 0.38 for tankers, and 0.43 for bulkers. James T. Carlton, Donald M. Reid, and Henry van Leeuwen, The Role of Shipping in the Introduction of Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms to the Coastal Waters of the United States (other than the Great Lakes) and an Analysis of Control Options, Shipping Study I, USCG Report No. CG-D-11-95 (Springfield, VA: National Technical Information Service, April 1995), p. 75. A study using marine engineering models to estimate ballast capacities used an average ballast capacity of 49% of DWT, but found on the basis of actual samples that this overestimated capacity by about 20%, and would thus indicate a figure of 40% of DWT. The study noted, further, that "the overestimation is further amplified by the assumption of universal ballasting for heavy-weather." Rendall B. Farley, Analysis of Overseas Vessel Transits into the Great Lakes through Commercial Shipping and Resultant Distribution of Ballast Water, University of Michigan College of Engineering Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering paper No. 331 (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, October 1996), pp. 12, 19, and Michael G. Parsons, Russell Moll, Thomas P. Mackey, and Rendall B. Farley, Great Lakes Ballast Demonstration Project -- Phase I (Ann Arbor, MI: Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystem Research, University of Michigan, 1997), p. 21.

^72. See estimate of 1,500-8,500 mt range in Parsons, et al., ibid., p. 16, table 1, and sampling of specific vessels running from 1,181-9,608 mt in Pollutech Environmental Limited, A Review and Evaluation of Ballast Water Management and Treatment Options to Reduce the Potential for the Introduction of Non-Native Species to the Great Lakes, Technical Appendix A, Ballast Water Characterization, report prepared for the Canadian Coast Guard (Sarnia, ON: March 31, 1992), p. 11, table 2.1.4. I am rounding off to widen the range here.

^73. The survey of coastal ships noted above found that actual ballast carried when operating "in ballast" or "with ballast" was 0.16 of DWT for all classes, 0.15 for container ships, 0.05 for tankers, and 0.23 for bulkers. Carlton, et al ., ibid. An analysis of foreign vessels entering the Great Lakes found that "Ballast tonnage at 25% [of DWT] is considered the norm, 20% for short trips and good weather, and 30% for heavy weather. In severe conditions, a master may decide to use 40% ballast." Pollutech Environmental Limited, A Review and Evaluation of Ballast Water Management and Treatment Options to Reduce the Potential for the Introduction of Non-Native Species to the Great Lakes, Technical Appendix A, Ballast Water Characterization, report prepared for the Canadian Coast Guard (Sarnia, ON: March 31, 1992), p. 8.

^74. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991), p.  10 (mean average, based on 1990 samples).

^75. Pollutech, supra, p. 8 (mean average, out of a range of 3,167-7,013 metric tonnes, based on the 25% rule given above). An average figure of 10,084 metric tonnes was used in Farley, supra. But, as noted above, that was found to be an overestimate based on samples of capacity, and was also based on "heavy-weather" ballasting.

^76. Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), pp. 2-4.

^77. This is probably typical of vessels, or at least bulk traders, around the world. They have their ballast tanks pumped down as far as possible because they are loaded with cargo, which is, from the point of view of the commercial operations, the ideal state for vessels to always be in. Percentages based on US Coast Guard Ninth District Marine Safety Analysis and Policy Branch figures from boardings of large transoceanic commercial carriers over the years 1993-1997, which varied from a low of 77.4% NOBOB in 1995 to 93.8% NOBOB in 1993, two of the years which are reported in M. Eric Reeves, "Techniques for the Protection of the Great Lakes from Infection by Exotic Organisms in Ballast Water," in Frank M. D'Itri, Zebra Mussels and Aquatic Nuisance Species (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1997), pp. 283-299, p. 288, table 1. Please notice the qualification of "recent years." It does not appear safe to make any long-term predictions about the highly variable trade of the Seaway.

^78. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991), p.  10.

^79. Locke, et al., ibid., p. 9.

^80. Marine Board, National Research Council, Stemming the Tide: Controlling Introductions of Nonindigenous Species by Ships' Ballast Water (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996), p. 24, table 2-1, and Michael G. Parsons, Russell Moll, Thomas P. Mackey, and Rendall B. Farley, Great Lakes Ballast Demonstration Project -- Phase I (Ann Arbor, MI: Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystem Research, University of Michigan, 1997).

^81. Based on a sample vessel in Parsons, et al., supra, at p. 74.

^82. James T. Carlton, Donald M. Reid, and Henry van Leeuwen, The Role of Shipping in the Introduction of Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms to the Coastal Waters of the United States (other than the Great Lakes) and an Analysis of Control Options, Shipping Study I, USCG Report No. CG-D-11-95 (Springfield, VA: National Technical Information Service, April 1995), p. xix.

^83. Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), p. 4, table 1.

^84. A careful review of the literature indicates that this issue has been subject to confusion in interpretation, which I must also plead guilty to in some of my previous reports on this subject.

Some actual samples of vessels entering the St. Lawrence Seaway in 1990 put the amount for that year at 719,473 metric tonnes. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991), p. 10. That figure is based on a relatively high proportion, 48%, of the vessels entering BOB, but uses a relatively low average, 3,115 metric tonnes, of ballast carried on the BOBs.

One quick calculation based on reports of vessel numbers in 1991 and an average vessel load of 7,500 metric tonnes put the annual input at 1,400,000 metric tonnes, but that estimate was based on a large number of total vessel entries not consistent with other figures, and did not take account of the fact that most of the vessels actually enter in an unloaded NOBOB condition. Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), pp. 2-3.

An analysis of the capacity of representative vessels surveyed in 1994 produced an estimate of 5.7 million metric tonnes as the potential input of overseas ballast, but this estimate did not take account of typical loads on BOB vessels and also ignored the fact that most vessels enter NOBOB. Aquatic Sciences, Examination of Aquatic Nuisance Species Introductions to the Great Lakes through Commercial Shipping Ballast Water and Assessment of Control Options, Phase II Final Report, ASI Project E9225/E9285 (St. Catherines, ON: Aquatic Sciences, Inc., August 1996), p. 13.

Finally, a statistical study of 1995 trade based on assumed correlations between cargo and ballast came up with an estimate of 4,406,498 in total metric tonnes discharged by foreign vessels inside the Great Lakes, but pointed out that only 16.3% of this, or 716,462 metric tonnes, was originally ballast of foreign origin on BOB vessels. (This estimate is actually stated in cubic meters, m³, rather than "metric tonnes.") This estimate is also somewhat high due to the fact that the study uses a relatively high estimate of the typical load on a BOB. Rendall B. Farley, Analysis of Overseas Vessel Transits into the Great Lakes through Commercial Shipping and Resultant Distribution of Ballast Water, University of Michigan College of Engineering Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering paper No. 331 (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, October 1996), p. 22.

The rounded figure of 720,000 metric tonnes used here is probably still just a little bit high, even accounting for the recent increase in trade (which probably reduces the BOB percentage, because much of that is due to increased imports) but it thereby represents an estimate which may appropriately err a little on the high end in terms of estimating the cost of dealing with the water on board the vessels.

^85. Farley, ibid., p. 1.

^86. Farley, ibid.

^87. Aquatic Sciences, ibid.

^88. See the discussion of these studies in the long footnote above.

^89. Farley, supra, p. 12.

^90. There are currently 88 vessels in the CSA companies, but not all of these operate inside the Great Lakes.

^91. See Michael G. Parsons, Russell Moll, Thomas P. Mackey, and Rendall B. Farley, Great Lakes Ballast Demonstration Project -- Phase I (Ann Arbor, MI: Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystem Research, University of Michigan, 1997), p. 15.

^92. Kevin O'Malley, "Seaway Fleet Study," DOT Today (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, May 1996), reporting results of SLSDC study, State of the St. Lawrence Seaway Vessel Fleet.

^93. US St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation (SLSDC), Log Book (Washington, DC: SLSDC, March 1994), p. 2. Also, the 1996 study by the SLSDC found that 14,500 commercial vessels, or 41% of the world's merchant fleet in excess of 300 gross registered tons (including vessels below the handysize class) were capable of transiting Seaway locks and channels, that the existing Seaway-sized ocean and Great Lakes bulk fleet was rapidly aging, and that by 2005, the number of Seaway-sized ships 20 years old or younger would shrink substantially. SLSDC web site at www.dot.gov/slsdc/about/exthist.html (accessed July 3, 1999).

^94. Intercargo (International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners), Bulletin (February 1999), no. 160, p. 1.

^95. Canadian Shipowners Association and Chamber of Maritime Commerce, A Competitive Vision for the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway: An Initiative of Canada's Marine Industry (Ottawa: CSA, October 1997), § III.

^96. See the St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation (SLSDC) web site at www.dot. gov/slsdc/about/exthist.html (accessed July 3, 1999). A variety of discounts are granted to other categories of cargo as well.

^97. Canadian Shipowners Association and Chamber of Maritime Commerce, A Competitive Vision for the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway: An Initiative of Canada's Marine Industry (Ottawa: Canadian Shipowners Association, October 1997), § III.

^98. See a number of articles in Nonindigenous Estuarine & Marine Organisms (NEMO), proceedings of workshop at Seattle, ^99. Analysis by Dr. Al Ballert, Great Lakes Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, reported in Rendall B. Farley, Analysis of Overseas Vessel Transits into the Great Lakes through Commercial Shipping and Resultant Distribution of Ballast Water, University of Michigan College of Engineering Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering paper No. 331 (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, October 1996), p. 23.

^100. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC) Marine Invasions Research Laboratory "Chesapeake Bay Research Overview" at http://www.serc.si.edu/invasions/chesoverview.htm (accessed July 15, 1999).

^101. Based on my analysis of 1992-1996 tonnage reports from the Seaway and the lakers.

^102. See David L. Knight, "Continuing a pattern of Stability: Great Lakes/Seaway System and its Ports Seem to Have Found a Sustainable Level," Seaway Review (January-March 1997), vol. 25, no. 3, pp.  5-17, p. 9, table.

^103. St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation web site at www.seaway.ca (accessed July 3, 1999).

^104. Donald R. Vonnahme, Chair, Great Lakes Commission, form letter to members of Congress (May 1997).

^105. On the basic figures and history of the Seaway, see the St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation (SLSDC) web site at www.dot.gov/slsdc/about/exthist.html (accessed July 3, 1999). Characterizations, especially the statement that the winter navigation program was a "failure," are my own opinion, based on my experience as a Coast Guard officer in the Great Lakes.

^106. Canada Statutes, Chapter C-6.7, 1998, c. 10.

^107. St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation web site at www.seaway.ca (accessed July 3, 1999).

^108. St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation, "St. Lawrence Seaway Opens for 40th Anniversary," press release (Cornwall, ON: March 31, 1999).

^109. A.J. Donaldson, Vice-Chairman, Upper Lakes Group Inc, "Commercialization of the St Lawrence Seaway," remarks to the Canada Grain Council reported at http://www.canadagrainscouncil.ca/donald~1.htm (undated, accessed July 3, 1999).

^110. Barry Rogliano Salles, The BRS Annual Review of World Shipping and Shipbuilding: Developments in 1998 and Prospects for the Coming Months (Paris: BRS, 1998), on line at http://www.brs-paris.com/research/ index.html.

^111. See a public advertisement for a 12,000 DWT bulker at $12,900,000 by China Marine Industries Corporation, at www.asiaonline.net (accessed July 2, 1999).

^112. Barry Rogliano Salles, supra, "Shipping and Shipbuilding Markets 1999," and table.

^113. Ibid.

^114. See Portship Sale & Purchase Report at www.portship.com. and Shipping Intelligence, Inc. ship sales reports at www.marinelink.com.

^115. Intercargo (International Association of Dry Bulk Cargo Shipowners), Bulletin (April 1999), no. 162, p. 2.

^116. Shipping Intelligence, Inc., "Current Index Fleet Rate and Price Valuations" (New York, NY: July 12, 1999), available on line at http://anansi.panix.com/userdirs/spl/ifleet.htm.

^117. Barry Rogliano Salles, The BRS Annual Review of World Shipping and Shipbuilding: Developments in 1998 and Prospects for the Coming Months (Paris: BRS, 1998), on line at http://www.brs-paris.com/research/ index.html.

^118. Ibid.

^119. Ibid.

^120. Shipping Intelligence, Inc., "Current Index Fleet Rate and Price Valuations" (New York, NY: July 12, 1999), available on line at http://anansi.panix.com/userdirs/spl/ifleet.htm.

^121. During the negotiations of the first International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Shipping in 1973, the International Maritime Organization in London asked the World Health Organization to conduct research on epidemic disease bacteria in ballast water, but that research seems to have never been carried out. Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), § 5.0, pp. 13-14. Customs and agricultural agencies in both the US and Canada inspect cargo and dunnage (packing material) under a wide variety of statutes and regulations for the control of animal and insect pests. Similar authority is exercised in Australia by the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS) which, unlike the agricultural agencies in the US and Canada, has been the lead federal agency for dealing with ballast water in Australia.

^122. James T. Carlton, Donald M. Reid, and Henry van Leeuwen, The Role of Shipping in the Introduction of Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms to the Coastal Waters of the United States (other than the Great Lakes) and an Analysis of Control Options, Shipping Study I, USCG Report No. CG-D-11-95 (Springfield, VA: National Technical Information Service, April 1995), p. 19.

^123. Christopher J. Wiley, "Aquatic Nuisance Species: Nature, Transport, and Regulation," in Frank M. D'Itri, Zebra Mussels and Aquatic Nuisance Species (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1997), pp. 55-63.

^124. Edward L. Mills, Spencer R. Hall, and Nijole K. Pauliukonis, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: From Science to Policy," Great Lakes Research Review (February 1998), vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 1-7, 2. See also Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 1-54.

^125. Mills, et al. (1993), ibid.

^126. James T. Carlton, "Biological Invasions and Biodiversity in the Sea: The Ecological and Human Impacts of Nonindigenous Marine and Estuarine Organisms," in Nonindigenous Estuarine & Marine Organisms (NEMO), proceedings of workshop at Seattle, WA, April 1993 (Washington, DC: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 1993), p. 7.

^127. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991); Aquatic Sciences, Examination of Aquatic Nuisance Species Introductions to the Great Lakes through Commercial Shipping Ballast Water and Assessment of Control Options, Phase II Final Report, ASI Project E9225/E9285 (St. Catherines, ON: Aquatic Sciences, August 1996). Re pathogens, in particular, a recent study of ballast water in vessels entering the Great Lakes by Dr. Ivor Knight at James Madison University, not yet published but presented to the 9^th Zebra Mussel Conference on April 28, 1999, found fecal indicators in 88% of the samples and other pathogens in 40% of the samples, including cholera in 15% of the samples.

Exotics are a form of plague, and ships have always been carriers of plague. In the Fourteenth Century of Medieval Europe, a growing network of shipping connecting the Mediterranean and the North Atlantic ports with faster and more seaworthy ships played a significant role in spreading the black rats and fleas which carried the Black Death. Similarly, the development of steam-powered ships in the latter part of the Nineteenth Century resulted in a global outbreak of what was probably the same epidemic. William H. McNeill, Plagues and Peoples (New York: Anchor, 1976), p. 165. Ships ballast up in crowded ports near urban centers, where they discharge their cargo, in ports all around the world. Most of those communities have poor to nonexistent water treatment facilities. The waters in almost all ports of the world (including those of the United States and Western European nations, as well as those of underdeveloped nations) have been described by biologists as "microbial soup," or "veritable stews of viruses, plasmids, transposons, and bacteria," and there is evidence that algae provides a protective packaging for the transportation of bacteria and viruses. Lauri Garrett, The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1994), Chapter 16, especially pp. 560-561.

It is often presumed that the Great Lakes are not likely to suffer ill effects from exotic pathogens because (1) the lakes are cold and (2) the lakes do not have any of the shellfish industries which commonly function as the medium for transmittal of pathogens to humans in warm-water areas. Those two factors are likely to have provided considerable protection, but may sometimes have only masked the chain of transmission. Although there are no outbreaks of human disease linked to foreign shipborne pathogens in the Great Lakes, we know the following two things: (1) The lakes are in fact quite warm enough in summer months (also the height of the shipping season, when ballast and marine sanitation device effluent is being discharged into ports very near public beaches) to require frequent closings due to documented outbreaks of E. coli. (2) Swimmers, particularly children who tend to ingest more water when swimming, are subject to more (usually undocumented) infections than the rest of the population. Greg Steele, "The Old Swimming Hole: An Epidemiological and Bacteriological Paradox," in Leslie Dorworth, ed., A National Healthy Beaches Symposium: Research, Monitoring and Cooperative Efforts, proceedings of conference at Indiana Dunes State Park, August 7, 1997 (Hammond, IN: Purdue University Calumet Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant Program, 1997), pp. 15-19; and other articles in the same proceedings. There is no evidence of a linkage between shipborne pathogens and disease in North America. But that evidence has not been looked for.

^128. See the detailed discussion of ships, ballast, and metric tonnes above.

^129. "Antifouling paints are used to coat the bottoms of ships to prevent sea life such as algae and mollusks attaching themselves to the hull - thereby slowing down the ship and increasing fuel consumption. In the early days of sailing ships, lime and later arsenic was used to coat ships' hulls, until the modern chemicals industry developed effective antifouling paints using metallic compounds. The compounds slowly 'leach' into the sea water, killing barnacles and other marine life that have attached to the ship - but studies have shown that these compounds persist in the water, killing sea life, harming the environment and possibly entering the food chain. One of the most effective antifouling paints, developed in the 1960s, contains organotin tributyltin (TBT), which has been proven to cause deformations in oysters and sex changes in whelks." IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), IMO Fax 04/98, 41st session: 30 March (London: IMO MEPC, April 3, 1998).

^130. This is, ironically, relevant to the protection of Great Lakes water quality and the protection of the health of citizens in the region because airborne deposition of heavy metals and persistent toxic chemicals is a source of significant contamination of the Great Lakes food supply, along with less persistent but damaging ozone and acid aerosols. See US EPA and Environment Canada, The Great Lakes: An Environmental Atlas and Resource Book (Chicago: US EPA Great Lakes National Program Office, 3^rd Ed. 1995), p. 31; and US EPA and Environment Canada, State of the Great Lakes 1997 (Chicago: US EPA Great Lakes National Program Office, 1997), pp. 39-42. A study by the Great Lakes maritime community found that, if the same cargoes carried by domestic Great Lakes shipping were to switch from vessel to rail, trains would burn an additional 14 million gallons of fuel and generate an extra 4,321 net tons of emissions. Lake Carriers' Association, 1996 Annual Report (Cleveland: LCA, 1997), p. 25. A similar analysis has not been done on the foreign cargoes entering through the Seaway, which do compete against trains for internal regional trade, but the same basic point very well applies. Great Lakes shipping, both foreign and domestic, has also been environmentally friendly in terms of accidental spills. There have been no major spills from commercial vessels in the Great Lakes since 1990 (a fire on a gasoline tank ship, which actually resulted in very little direct pollution of the water) and spills of oil and chemicals into the Great Lakes from shipping sources generally account for less than 1% of total load. Melville Shipping, Assessment of Pollution from the Great Lakes from Vessel Sources in Comparison to Other Sources, Canadian Coast Guard contract T1878-5-0147 (Ottawa: Canadian Coast Guard, March 1995), p. 58.

^131. US Coast Guard regulations at 33 CFR Part 151, Subpart C, §§ 151.1500 et seq., first promulgated in 1993, at 58 Federal Register 18334 (April 8, 1993), under the authority of the Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act of 1990 (NANPCA 90), US Public Law 101-646 (November 29, 1990), codified at 16 USC §§  4701 et seq. These mandatory regulations cover only the Great Lakes and, by later amendment, waters of the Hudson River connecting to the Great Lakes through the Erie Canal.

^132. See Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), § 3.2, p. 7.

^133. Alfred M. Beeton, James T. Carlton, Bridget A. Holohan, Glen H. Wheless, Arnoldo Valle-Levinson, Lisa A. Drake, Gregory Ruiz, Linda McCann, William Walton, Annette Frese, Paul Fofonoff, Scott Godwin, Jason Toft, Lisa Hartman, and Elizabeth von Holle, Ballast Exchange Study: Consideration of Back-Up Exchange Zones and Environmental Effects of Ballast Exchange and Ballast Release, report to National Sea Grant, NOAA, and EPA (Ann Arbor, MI: Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, November 1998). The report indicates, for example, that exchange may be appropriate as close as 100 kilometers (54 nautical miles) off the approach to Boston. Ibid, p. v., par. 16.

^134. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991), p. 26.

^135. I conducted this examination of readings, based on a sample of most of the vessels boarded during the 1997 navigation season, while the staff officer responsible for the program at the Ninth US Coast Guard District. It was cited by US Coast Guard Headquarters as evidence that "salinity cannot be relied upon alone as an indicator of an effective exchange, and should only be one factor in providing evidence that a performance standard has been met" as part of a notice of proposed rulemaking which would have established a performance standard of 90% exchange by volume, based on all available evidence, in place of the 30 ppt standard. Notice of proposed rulemaking at 63 Federal Register 17782 (April 10, 1998), p. 17785. Unfortunately, the US Coast Guard retreated from this position under pressure from the shipping industry in the following rulemaking action, but is still studying the problem. Interim rule with request for comments at 64 Federal Register 26672 (May 17, 1999), pp.  26677-8.

^136. The sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) is an anadromous species originally living in the Atlantic Ocean and spawning in the Northeastern rivers. It is not a ballast introduction. It may have come up the Erie Canal System, or may even have been native to Lake Ontario, and spread later to the upper lakes. See Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 6, 9.

^137. Cholera, caused by the bacterium genus Vibrio, is a particularly instructive example of the adaptability of simple organisms. It has various species and strains, some of which are not pathogenic to humans, some of which thrive more in salt or fresh water. But some of the pathogenic forms can certainly make the transition. A 1961 pandemic of cholera in Peru was caused by the El Tor strain, Vibrio cholerae 01, which "was particularly well equipped, genetically, for long-term survival inside algae ..." Also, "The El Tor strain was capable of shrinking itself 300-fold when plunged suddenly into cold salt water. In that form it was the size of a large virus, very difficult to detect ... add nitrogen, raise the temperature, decrease the salinity, and bingo! instant cholera." It is believed that the El Toro strain infected Peru via water carried by a Chinese freighter from the Asian seas. Lauri Garrett, The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1994), p. 564.

^138. James T. Carlton, Donald M. Reid, and Henry van Leeuwen, The Role of Shipping in the Introduction of Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms to the Coastal Waters of the United States (other than the Great Lakes) and an Analysis of Control Options, Shipping Study I, USCG Report No. CG-D-11-95 (Springfield, VA: National Technical Information Service, April 1995), p. 161. See also Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS), Ballast Water Treatment for the Removal of Marine Organisms, AQIS Ballast Water Research Series Report No. 1 (Canberra, Australia: Australian Government Publishing Service, June 1993), pp. 8-9; and A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 1822 (Burlington, Ontario: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991), p.  39.

^139. James T. Carlton, Williams College Maritime Studies in Mystic Seaport, letter to Jonathan Burton, US Coast Headquarters, Washington, DC (February 12, 1993).

^140. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991), p.  39.

^141. James T. Carlton, Donald M. Reid, and Henry van Leeuwen, The Role of Shipping in the Introduction of Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms to the Coastal Waters of the United States (other than the Great Lakes) and an Analysis of Control Options, Shipping Study I, USCG Report No. CG-D-11-95 (Springfield, VA: National Technical Information Service, April 1995), p. 153. That statement was recently reaffirmed in Alfred M. Beeton, James T. Carlton, Bridget A. Holohan, Glen H. Wheless, Arnoldo Valle-Levinson, Lisa A. Drake, Gregory Ruiz, Linda McCann, William Walton, Annette Frese, Paul Fofonoff, Scott Godwin, Jason Toft, Lisa Hartman, and Elizabeth von Holle, Ballast Exchange Study: Consideration of Back-Up Exchange Zones and Environmental Effects of Ballast Exchange and Ballast Release, report to National Sea Grant, NOAA, and EPA (Ann Arbor, MI: Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, November 1998). "Experimental studies conducted on the survival of oceanic organisms under lowered salinity regimes indicate the effectiveness of this barrier. These experiments suggest that few organisms of oceanic origin in exchanged ballast water are likely to survive upon release to low salinity coastal habitats." Ibid., p. ii, para. 7.

^142. The number of "problem vessels," relative to the number of vessels entering with ballast, declined from 7.4% to 1% over the five years from 1993 to 1997. (And all these were required to take remedial action.) In addition, the ratio between the number of vessels entering with ballast and retaining their water throughout the voyage and those entering with ballast after conducting an exchange at sea declined, from almost an equal ratio (.933) in 1993 to about one in eighteen (.057) in 1997, thus indicating that vessel operators are getting in the habit of conducting an exchange instead of resorting to retention. Based on figures I collected while Chief of the US Coast Guard Ninth District Marine Safety Analysis and Policy Branch, Cleveland, Ohio.

^143. Robert Tagg, Herbert Engineering Corp., presentation to a conference on ballast water at the California Maritime Academy, Vallejo, California, June 16, 1999.

^144. Resolution A.686(2), IMO 20^th General Assembly (London: IMO, November 27, 1997), especially Appendix 2, § 1.3.2 re flow-through exchange.

^145. Tagg, ibid.

^146. In fact, almost all large commercial vessel ballast piping systems have a set of multiple main pipes, either running down the centerline of the vessel or in parallel port and starboard, connected to two or more main pumps in the flow between the internal system and the seachests for taking on and discharging water, with lots of valves and controls for moving water in different directions. There is considerable independent pumping capacity and piping already built in. There just are not any outflow pipe ends put in at the tops of the tanks.

^147. The complexity of the internal structure of vessels (which goes far beyond this basic discussion of some of the main points of ballast tanks) can be seen in basic references such as Robert Taggart, ed., Ship Design and Construction (New York: Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers, 1980).

^148. The Marine Board of the National Research Council recommends consideration of "structural and piping designs that trap less sediment and are easier to clean" at the time of "construction or major alteration to existing vessels." Marine Board, Stemming the Tide: Controlling Introductions of Nonindigenous Species by Ships' Ballast Water (Washington DC: National Academy Press, 1996), Appendix D, p. 106.

^149. Submission to IMO MEPC Ballast Water Working Group by the representatives of Brazil, "Harmful Aquatic Organisms in Ballast Water: Results of Ballast Water Exchange Tests Using the Dilution Method," MEPC Document 40/10/4 (London: IMO, July 18, 1997).

^150. International Association of Classification Societies, Bulk Carriers: Handle with Care (London: IACS, undated, circa 1998), p. 3.

^151. Some engineering analyses have been conducted on a small number of vessels in order to obtain a picture of the problem. That picture, unfortunately, is confused. The University of Michigan Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering analyzed three sample ships - a dry bulk carrier, a tanker, and a containership - taken as typical of smaller ships trading to US ports, although only the bulker was a handysize that fit inside the Seaway. That study found that "ballasting/deballasting can be done at sea with safety as long as wave heights are below a maximum value. From [the] small sample of three ships it appears that this maximum lies between 10 and 20 feet." J.B. Woodward, M.G. Parsons, and A.W. Troesch, "Ship Operational and Safety Aspects of Ballast Water Exchange at Sea," Marine Technology (October 1994), vol. 31, pp. 315-326, 324. On the other hand, a similar study conducted by Melville Shipping for Transport Canada concluded that two sample vessels would not be able to safely conduct an exchange due to bending moment and sheer force limitations. Melville Shipping, Ballast Water Exchange Study: Phase I, Transport Canada Contract T8080-4-6801 (Ottawa: Melville Shipping Ltd., March 1995). Both of the vessels used in the Melville study were larger than the upper physical limits of what can fit through the St. Lawrence Seaway. However, one of those vessels, a bulk carrier 225 meters in length and 32 meters in beam, just a bit too wide, was uncomfortably close to the Seaway limits of 226 meters by 24 meters.

It had often been assumed that hull stress was primarily a big boat problem, with the rule of thumb sometimes given as being that it is of concern with vessels of more than 40,000 deadweight tonnes (DWT). A typical handysize bulk carrier small enough to fit through the St. Lawrence Seaway might run anywhere from around 10,000 to 35,000 DWT. It was therefore assumed by many that hull stress from ballast exchange was not an issue for the Great Lakes. A 1996 Canadian report warned that this might not be a good assumption, particularly for the smaller but narrower vessels in the Seaway: "While the safety implications of ballast water exchange continue to be debated internationally the emphasis appears to be placed on larger ships, bulk carriers over forty thousand tonnes deadweight, which are too large to enter the Great Lakes. However, the bulk carriers built specifically for the lakes trade and designed to a length to breadth ratio of 10:1 have a history of structural cracking on North Atlantic passages. This condition could be further aggravated by the exchange of water ballast, particularly as these ships age, and change ownership and/or management. The program [the voluntary Canadian ballast water exchange program beginning in 1990] has been in effect for seven years without serious incident, which would tend to indicate it can continue. However, over a period where the majority of entries have been in a loaded condition [NOBOB], it is easy to be lulled into a false sense of security."< Aquatic Sciences, Examination of Aquatic Nuisance Species Introductions to the Great Lakes through Commercial Shipping Ballast Water and Assessment of Control Option, Phase II, Those words were prophetic. On January 16, 1998, the motor vessel Flare broke in half off Newfoundland while on its way in ballast from Rotterdam to Montreal. (Information on the Flare case from Transport Canada and Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans.) There were 25 in the crew, of which 21 drowned and 4 were rescued. The Flare was a bulk carrier, 181 meters long and 23 meters wide (approximately 8:1 length to breadth ratio), of 29,222 DWT, and built in 1972 (26 years old). The St. Lawrence Seaway was closed at that time and Montreal was the final destination, so the Flare was not subject to the US mandatory regulations, but it apparently conducted a pump-down pump-up ballast exchange in accordance with the 1990 voluntary Canadian guidelines. Seas were reported to be as high as 4 meters (13.2 feet) at the time of the hull failure. (The ship may have been manipulating ballast in a tank for another purpose. Unfortunately, it seems that any of the ship's officers who could have explained exactly what was done did not survive.) The failure was catastrophic in nature, occurring without any advance warning. The phrase "broke in half" is not a salty metaphor. There was, literally, only one half of the vessel on the surface of the ocean when Canadian rescue forces arrived.

At 26 years, this was a relatively old vessel, but not uniquely so. It was flagged under Cyprus, owned by a Greek company, and crewed with a mixture of nationalities. In 1993, it had been temporarily abandoned because of problems with shifting steel in the holds. The case is still under investigation by the Canadian Transport Safety Board and there are no conclusions about the cause of the hull failure at this time. In particular, it cannot yet be said whether or not a pump-down ballast exchange contributed to the hull failure. It can be said, however, that this is dramatic and tragic confirmation of the systemic problems discussed in the 1996 Canadian report.

^152. "Complete exchange of ballast water in mid-ocean as a regular practice in an operation that was not foreseen, nor designed for in any exiting ships." Alex Bilney, International Chamber of Shipping, US Coast Guard NPRM Docket USCG-98-3423, Comment #54 (August 6, 1998), p. 2.

^153. Recent studies of ballast in US coastal trade indicate that "Domestic ballast water may have actually originated from a foreign port in a ship that picks up partial loads in each of several US ports before transiting back to a foreign port. Thus, even ships defined as domestic traffic may be carrying large quantities of foreign ballast and NIS." Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC) Marine Invasions Research Laboratory "Chesapeake Bay Research Overview Chesapeake Bay Research Overview" at http://www.serc.si.edu/ invasions/chesoverview.htm (accessed July 15, 1999).

^154. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991), p. 43.

^155. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991).

^156. Locke, et al., supra, p. 34.

^157. G.R. Rigby, I.G. Steverson, C.J. Bolch, and G.M. Hallegraeff, "The Transfer and Treatment of Shipping Ballast Water to Reduce the Dispersal of Toxic Marine Dinoflagellates," Toxic Phytoplankton Blooms in the Sea (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1993), pp. 169-176, 173.

^158. Aquatic Sciences, Examination of Aquatic Nuisance Species Introductions to the Great Lakes through Commercial Shipping Ballast Water and Assessment of Control Options, Phase II Final Report, ASI Project E9225/E9285 (St. Catherines, ON: Aquatic Sciences, August 1996). The organisms included Mollusca (mussels), Bivalia (mussels), Rotifera, Copepoda, Cladocer (water fleas), Diptera (flies), Oligocha (worms), Polychae (worms), Nematoda (worms), E. coli, V. alginoliticus, V. fluvialis, A. hydrophila, Pseudemonas sp, Providencia rettgeri, Ps. Aeruginosa, A. sobria, and A. caviae.

^159. The initial Canadian guidelines are described in Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), § 3.2, p. 7. These were followed up in 1993 by the promulgation of almost identical US Coast Guard mandatory regulations in 58 Federal Register 18334 (April 8, 1993), adding 33 CFR Part 151, Subpart C, §§ 151.1500 et seq. A Canadian study conducted in 1990 reported 89% compliance with the Canadian voluntary guidelines. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991), p. 8. That level of compliance increased with the US Coast Guard mandatory regime. Compliance was well above 90%, and "problem vessels" found to initially be not in compliance were required to take remedial measures, such as treatment of the water, to correct the problem. M. Eric Reeves, "Techniques for the Protection of the Great Lakes from Infection by Exotic Organisms in Ballast Water," in Frank M. D'Itri, Zebra Mussels and Aquatic Nuisance Species (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1997), pp. 283-99, 288-9, table 1 and notes. However, it is important to understand that all of these statistics apply to BOB vessels with "ballast on board," and not to the NOBOB vessels carrying unpumpable slop and sediment.

^160. These were (1) the oligochaete Ripistes parasita, 1980, (2) the oligochaete Phallodrilus aquaedulcis, 1983, (3) the spiny water flea, Bythotrephes cederstroemi, 1984, (4) the European ruffe, Gymnocephalus cernuus, 1986, (5) the four-spine stickleback, Apeltes quadracus, 1986, and (6) the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, 1988. Compilation by Ms. Margaret Dochoda, biologist, Great Lakes Fishery Commission.

^161. These were (1) the tubenose goby, Proterorhinus marmoratus, 1990, (2) the round goby, Neopobius melanostomus, 1990, (3) the quagga mussel, Dreissena bugensis, 1991 (4) the NZ mud snail, Potamopyrgus antipodarum, 1991, (5) the amphipod Echinogammarus ischnus, 1995, and (6) the cladoceran water flea, Ceropagis pengoi, 1998. Ibid.

^162. Eriocheir sinensis.

^163. Platichthys flessus.

^164. J.H. Leach, Research Scientist, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Lake Erie Fisheries Station, letter to James Carlton, Maritime Studies Program, William College - Mystic Seaport (May 18, 1994).

^165. John M. Casselman, Senior Scientist, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Research, Science, and Technology Branch, letter to P. Furlong, Lake Superior Management Unit (December 9, 1994).

^166. The mean average age of international shipping over 100 gross registered tons is 15.8 years for bulkers and 17.8 years for tankers. The Chamber of Shipping, December 31, 1997 data at www.british-shipping.org (accessed July 1, 1999).

^167. I provide a more comprehensive survey of the literature in M. Eric Reeves, "Techniques for the Protection of the Great Lakes from Infection by Exotic Organisms in Ballast Water," in Frank M. D'Itri, ed., Zebra Mussels and Aquatic Nuisance Species (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1997) 283-299. The leading national scoping studies on ballast water technology are: (1) Canada: Pollutech Environmental Limited, A Review and Evaluation of Ballast Water Management and Treatment Options to Reduce the Potential for the Introduction of Non-Native Species to the Great Lakes, Technical Appendix B, Ballast Water Treatment, report prepared for the Canadian Coast Guard (Sarnia, ON: March 31, 1992). (2) United States: Marine Board, National Research Council, Stemming the Tide: Controlling Introductions of Nonindigenous Species by Ships' Ballast Water (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996). (3) Australia: Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS), Ballast Water Treatment for the Removal of Marine Organisms, AQIS Ballast Water Research Series Report No. 1 (Canberra, Australia: Australian Government Publishing Service, June 1993).

^168. Pollutech Environmental Limited, A Review and Evaluation of Ballast Water Management and Treatment Options to Reduce the Potential for the Introduction of Non-Native Species to the Great Lakes, Technical Appendix B, Ballast Water Treatment, report prepared for the Canadian Coast Guard (Sarnia, ON: March 31, 1992).

^169. Pollutech, ibid., p. 21, table 2.2.6.1. This estimate assumes a flow rate of 2,500 m³/hour and extra transit time due to exchange.

^170. Michael G. Parsons, "Flow-Through Ballast Water Exchange," a background paper for the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers (SNAME) Ad-Hoc Panel on Ballast Water Exchange, SNAME Annual Meeting, San Diego, California, 1998.

^171. Everett C. Hunt and Boris S. Butman, Marine Engineering and Economics Cost Analysis (Centreville, MD: Cornell Maritime Press, 1995), appendix C, page C-3, table 12-3, account number 918.

^172. Hunt and Butman, ibid., p. 1-6.

^173. Michael G. Parsons, Russell Moll, Thomas P. Mackey, and Rendall B. Farley, Great Lakes Ballast Demonstration Project -- Phase I. (Ann Arbor, MI: Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystem Research, University of Michigan, 1997), p. 69. Also, in personal communications since that time, Dr. Parsons has said that additional experience with the demonstration project would lead him to revise that estimate upward somewhat.

^174. Pollutech Environmental Limited, A Review and Evaluation of Ballast Water Management and Treatment Options to Reduce the Potential for the Introduction of Non-Native Species to the Great Lakes, Technical Appendix B, Ballast Water Treatment, report prepared for the Canadian Coast Guard (Sarnia, ON: March 31, 1992), p. 115, table 2.7.6.1.

^175. Estimate of 1992 US dollars present value cost, including both capital and operating costs, per 1,000 cubic meters in Pollutech, ibid., pp. 128-130, tables 2.8.6.1-2.8.6.3. One can obtain a slightly lower cost for filtering plus UV, compared to filtering alone, by combining a very coarse filter with a UV system. But this lowers the likely effectiveness of the UV system, and may also increase breakdowns.

^176. Estimate of 1992 US dollars present value cost, including both capital and operating costs, per 1,000 cubic meters in Pollutech, ibid., pp. 57-60, tables 2.5.1.6.1-2.5.1.6.4.

^177. Estimate of 1992 US dollars present value cost, including both capital and operating costs, per 1,000 cubic meters in Pollutech, ibid., pp. 71-73, tables 2.5.2.6.1-2.5.2.6.3.

^178. Larissa M. Lubomudrov., Russell A. Moll, and Michael G. Parsons, An Evaluation of the Feasibility and Efficacy of Biocide Application in Controlling the Release of Nonindigenous Aquatic Species from Ballast Water (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, November 1997), p. 90, table 10.1.

^179. Estimate of 1992 US dollars present value cost in Pollutech Environmental Limited, A Review and Evaluation of Ballast Water Management and Treatment Options to Reduce the Potential for the Introduction of Non-Native Species to the Great Lakes, Technical Appendix B, Ballast Water Treatment, report prepared for the Canadian Coast Guard (Sarnia, ON: March 31, 1992), p. 162.

^180. Estimate of 1992 US dollars present value cost in Pollutech, ibid., p. 163.

^181. Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 1-54, 7-8, Table 3.

^182. See also the list of the thirteen most significant introductions in Mills, et al., ibid., pp. 1-54, 43.

^183. Mills, et al., ibid, pp. 1-54, 20.

^184. This was the sense of comments from one or more industry experts at the American Fisheries Society Symposia, "Private Agriculture Safeguards for Great Lakes Biological Integrity" (Dearborn, MI, August 29, 1996).

^185. Dr. George Spangler, comments at the American Fisheries Society Symposia, "Private Agriculture Safeguards for Great Lakes Biological Integrity," Dearborn, Michigan, August 29, 1996.

^186. That sort of statistical study is of very real value, but only within limits. Scientists are trained to quantify. Few biologists want to appear at a conference without their bar and whisker graphs. But the quantifications, trends, and linear correlations they seek to draw out of those data sets are often vague or misleading (as they themselves often warn their audiences) because of the inability to control for historical change in the ecosystem, including the historic and non-repetitive perturbations of human activities as well as the chaotic and nonlinear changes in ecosystem interactions. Ecology, which might be thought of as the current history of paleontology, is very much what the paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould has called a "historical science," in which "verification by repetition," the stereotypical talisman of the scientific method, is inapplicable "because we are trying to account for uniqueness of detail that cannot, both by laws of probability and time's arrow of irreversibility, occur together again." Stephen Jay Gould, Wonderful Life: The Burgess Shale and the Nature of History (New York: W.W. Norton, 1989), p. 278. This point is far from being merely academic or philosophical. It plays a critical part in the politics of ecology. Whether the subject is aquaculture or global warming, there will always be an argument, based on a false image of science, that we need to wait for more "science" to prove the connection in quantitative terms.

^187. Rebecca Goldberg and Tracy Triplett, Murky Waters: Environmental Effects of Aquaculture in the US (New York: Environmental Defense Fund, October 1997), p. 22, Figure 1.3, p. 50.

^188. Goldberg and Triplett, supra, pp. 11, 52.

^189. National Science and Technology Council Joint Subcommittee on Aquaculture (JSA), Draft National Aquaculture Development Plan of 1996 (Washington DC: JSA, 1996), § 4.4.5, p. 9. (This is still the most current version of this policy statement by JSA as of July 15, 1999.)

^190. LaDon Swann, A Basic Overview of Aquaculture, Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant Program Technical Bulletin Series #102 (West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University, August 1992), p. 2.

^191. LaDon Swann, supra.

^192. Goldberg and Triplett, supra, p. 22.

^193. JSA, supra, § 2, p 3.

^194. LaDon Swann, supra., p. 3.

^195. Michigan State University, Water Impacts, vol. 16, No. 3 (Lansing, MI: Michigan State University Institute of Water Research, March 1995), p. 3.

^196. Water Impacts, supra.

^197. LaDon Swann, supra, p. 3.

^198. Joint Subcommittee on Aquaculture, "US Private Aquaculture Production for 1985-1997," at ag.ansc.edu (Washington, DC: JSA, February 18, 1999).

^199. Leroy J. Hushak, North Central Regional Aquaculture Industry Situation and Outlook Report, vol. 1 (Ames, IA: Iowa State University North Central Region Aquaculture Center, August 1993), p. 16.

^200. Wisconsin Sea Grant Advisory Services web sit on "Aquaculture" at www.seagrant.wisc.edu (October 27, 1998).

^201. M.J. Spatz, J.L. Anderson, and S. Jancart, Northeast Region Aquaculture Industry Situation and Outlook Report, Rhode Island Agriculture Experiment Station publication no. 3352 (Kingston, RI: Rhode Island Agriculture Experiment Station, 1996).

^202. Richard D. Moccia and David J. Bevan, Aquastats 95, ACE order no. 96-001 (Guelph, ON: University of Guelph, August 1996), available at www.aps.uoguelph.ca.

^203. Moccia and Bevan, ibid.

^204. LaDon Swann, A Basic Overview of Aquaculture, Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant Program technical bulletin series #102 (West Lafaette, IN: Purdue University, August 1992), p. 3.

^205. Personal interview of Dr. Don Garling, an aquaculture specialist and member of the Michigan Aquaculture Advisory Committee, at Michigan State University in Lansing, MI; and Swann, supra.

^206. Rebecca Goldberg and Tracy Triplett, Murky Waters: Environmental Effects of Aquaculture in the US (New York: Environmental Defense Fund, October 1997), p. 15.

^207. Goldberg and Triplett, ibid.

^208. Swann, ibid, p. 8.

^209. Joyce R. Newman and Niles R. Kevern, Production of Michigan Aquacultural Products, Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station research report RR 526-1 (East Lansing, MI: Michigan State University Agricultural Experiment Station, April 1994), p. 7.

^210. Charles J. Chopak and Joyce R. Newman, Aquaculture: Status and Potential of Michigan Agriculture - Phase II, Michigan State University Agricultural Experiment Station special report no. 50 (East Lansing, MI: Michigan State University Agricultural Experiment Station, September 1992), p. 7; and Newman and Kevern, supra.

^211. APHIS, Overview of Aquaculture in the United States (Fort Collins, CO: USDA APHIS Centers for Epidemiology & Animal Health, October 1995), p. 16; and LaDon Swann, Diagnostic Services in Illinois and Indiana, Sea Grant #IL-IN-SG-FS-91-10 (West Lafaette, IN: Purdue University, undated), p. 1.

^212. Rebecca Goldberg and Tracy Triplett, Murky Waters: Environmental Effects of Aquaculture in the US (New York: Environmental Defense Fund, October 1997), p. 52. See also James E. Stewart, "Introductions as a Factor in Disease of Fish and Aquatic Invertebrates," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp.  110-117.

^213. JSA, Draft National Aquaculture Development Plan of 1996 (Washington DC: National Science and Technology Council Joint Subcommittee on Aquaculture, 1996), § 4.4.6, p. 9. (This is still the most current version of this policy statement by JSA as of July 15, 1999.)

^214. Terry L. Medley, APHIS Aquaculture Industry Report (Riverdale, MD: Animal and Planet Health Inspection Service Legislative and Public Affairs, July 1996), p. 1; and Draft National Aquaculture Development Plan of 1996, supra, § 4.4.6, p. 10.

^215. Presentations at the Michigan Department of Agriculture Aquaculture Advisory Committee, Lansing, MI, November 10, 1998.

^216. Great Lakes Fish Disease Control Policy and Model Program, Great Lakes Fishery Commission Special Publication 93-1 (Ann Arbor, MI: Great Lakes Fishery Commission, January 1993).

^217. Michigan Compiled Laws, MCL § 286.877(c).

^218. Denise Yockey, State Agriculture Director Announces Monitoring Strategy for Whirling Disease in Fish, MDA news release (Lansing, MI: MDA Marketing and Communications Division, August 25, 1998); MDA, Reportable Animal Disease List, MDA public advisory, apparently annual (Lansing MI: MDA Animal Industry Division, August 1998).

^219. Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 1-54, 20.

^220. See the list of pathogens around the world in APHIS, Overview of Aquaculture in the United States (Fort Collins, CO: APHIS Centers for Epidemiology & Animal Health, October 1995), pp.  14-15, table 7.

^221. See Joyce R. Newman and Niles R. Kevern, Production of Michigan Aquacultural Products, Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station research report RR 526-1 (East Lansing, MI: Michigan State University Agricultural Experiment Station, April 1994), p. 10.

^222. From the Victorian Fisheries Institute web site at www.fishnet.au (accessed February 18, 1999).

^223. Rebecca Goldberg and Tracy Triplett, Murky Waters: Environmental Effects of Aquaculture in the US (New York: Environmental Defense Fund, October 1997), p. 14.

^224. Goldberg and Triplett, ibid., pp. 53-55.

^225. Kjetil Hindar, Nils Ryman, and Fred Utter, "Genetic Effects of Aquaculture on Natural Fish Populations," Aquaculture, vol. 98 (1991), pp. 259-261. See also R.W. Doyle, N.L. Shackel, Z. Basiao, S. Uraiwan, T. Matricia, and A.J. Tolbot, "Selective Diversification of Aquaculture Stocks: A Proposal for Economically Sustainable Genetic Conservation," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp. 148-154; Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force, ibid., p. 10. On the mixed state of affairs in 1991, see also Paul J. Wingate, "US State's View and Regulations on Fish Introductions," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp. 167-170.

^226. Devin M. Bartley and Eric M. Hallerman, "A Global Perspective on the Utilization of Genetically Modified Organisms in Aquaculture and Fisheries," Aquaculture, vol. 137 (1995), pp. 1-7, 4.

^227. James W. Fetzner, Robert J. Sheehan, and Lisa W. Seeb, "Genetic Implications of Broodstock Selection for Crayfish Aquaculture in the Midwestern United States," Aquaculture, vol. 154 (1997), pp. 39-55, 50.

^228. See FAO, Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (Rome: UN FAO, 1995), § 9.3.1.

^229. Ismail Serageldin, quoted in DFO, Aquatic Biotechnology, Department of Fisheries and Ocean discussion document attached to the Canadian Biotechnology Strategy (Ottawa: Industry Canada, Bio-Industry Branch, August 6, 1998), § 3.

^230. JSA, Draft National Aquaculture Development Plan of 1996 (Washington DC: National Science and Technology Council Joint Subcommittee on Aquaculture, 1996), § 4.4.5, p. 9. (This is still the most current version of this policy statement by JSA as of July 15, 1999.)

^231. DFO, Aquatic Biotechnology, Department of Fisheries and Ocean discussion document attached to the Canadian Biotechnology Strategy (Ottawa: Industry Canada, Bio-Industry Branch, August 6, 1998), § 3.

^232. DFO, ibid, § 5a.

^233. E.g., some of the more recent are Thomas J. LoVullo and Jay R. Stauffer, Jr., "The Retail Bait Industry in Pennsylvania," Matthew K. Litvak and Nicholas E. Mandrak, "Ecology of Freshwater Use in Canada and the United States," Fisheries, vol. 18, no. 12 (December 1993), pp. 6-13; and Herbert R. Ludwig, Jr., and Jay A. Leitch, "Interbasin Transfer of Aquatic Biota via Anglers' Bait Buckets," Fisheries, vol. 21, no. 7 (1996), pp. 14-18.

^234. Brief from Dr. Douglas Jensen, Minnesota Sea Grant, and Dr. Ron Kinnunen, Michigan Sea Grant, to the Great Lakes Commission Panel on Aquatic Nuisance Species, Ann Arbor, Michigan, January 28, 1999. Their study seeks to apply the "HACCP" system, developed in food safety control, to the management of exotics in bait handling and aquaculture. "HACCP" stands for "hazardous analysis of critical control points," i.e., strategic analysis of targets of opportunity for effective control of a system, by either the government or the industry. Their study is near the end of the first of two years of scheduled work.

^235. Matthew K. Litvak and Nicholas E. Mandrak, "Ecology of Freshwater Use in Canada and the United States," Fisheries, vol. 18, no. 12 (December 1993), pp. 6-13, 6. One billion dollars is a very round figure, based on 1991 estimates that were rather rough at that time, and is offered here just to establish an order of magnitude.

^236. LaDon Swann, A Basic Overview of Aquaculture, Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant Program technical bulletin series #102 (West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University, August 1992), p. 6.

^237. Litvak and Mandrak, supra, pp. 6-13, 12, also citing L.A. Neilson, "The Bait-Fish Industry in Ohio and West Virginia, with Special Reference to the Ohio Sport Fishery," North American Journal of Fisheries Management, vol. 2 (1982), pp. 232-238.

^238. Litvak and Mandrak, ibid.

^239. Brief from Dr. Douglas Jensen, Minnesota Sea Grant, and Dr. Ron Kinnunen, Michigan Sea Grant, to the Great Lakes Commission Panel on Aquatic Nuisance Species, Ann Arbor, Michigan, January 28, 1999.

^240. Litvak and Nicholas E. Mandrak, "Ecology of Freshwater Use in Canada and the United States," Fisheries, vol. 18, no. 12 (December 1993), pp. 6-13, 7, citing W.R. Coutenay, Jr., and J.N. Taylor, presentation to the Symposium on Stock Enhancement in the Management of Freshwater Fish (Rome: European Inland Fisheries Advisory Commission, 1984).

^241. James E. Stewart, "Introductions as a Factor in Disease of Fish and Aquatic Invertebrates," Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (1991), vol. 48 (Supplement 1), pp.  110-117.

^242. Litvak and Nicholas E. Mandrak, "Ecology of Freshwater Use in Canada and the United States," Fisheries, vol. 18, no. 12 (December 1993), pp. 6-13, 9, 10, Table 2.

^243. Herbert R. Ludwig, Jr., and Jay A. Leitch, "Interbasin Transfer of Aquatic Biota via Anglers' Bait Buckets," Fisheries, vol. 21, no. 7 (1996), pp. 14-18, 14 (abstract).

^244. Mike Conlin, Chief, Division of Fisheries, Illinois DNR, letter (February 9, 1999). Emphasis in original.

^245. Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force, Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations of the Intentional Introductions Policy Review, report to Congress under Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act of 1990 § 1207 (16 USC § 472) (Washington, DC: US Fish and Wildlife Service, March 1994), p. 6, based on data from the Pet Industry Joint Advisory Council in 1994.

^246. Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force, supra, p. 6.

^247. Agriculture Plant and Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Overview of Aquaculture in the United States (Fort Collins, CO: USDA APHIS Centers for Epidemiology & Animal Health, October 1995), p. 16; and LaDon Swann, Diagnostic Services in Illinois and Indiana, Sea Grant #IL-IN-SG-FS-91-10 (West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University, undated), p. 11.

^248. See the "Coldwater Species Profiles" at Aquaria Central web site, www.aquariacentral. com/fishinfo/cold.

^249. Edward L. Mills, Joseph H. Leach, James T. Carlton, and Carol L. Secor, "Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions," Journal of Great Lakes Research (1993), vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 1-54.

^250. National Invasive Species Act of 1996, Public Law 104-332 (26 October 1996), codified at 16 USC §§ 4701 et seq.

^251. I provide this analysis, in great detail likely to be of interest primarily to other lawyers, but written with explanations intended to make it understandable to a lay person, in Eric Reeves, Analysis of Laws & Policies Concerning Exotic Invasions of the Great Lakes, a report commissioned by MDEQ OGL (Lansing, MI: MDEQ OGL, March 15, 1999), § 220. The most important court cases, which lay out the relevant preemption doctrine in the context of prior conflicts over state regulation of oil tankers on the West Coast, are Ray v. Atlantic Richfield Co., 435 US 151 (1978) and Chevron USA, Inc. v. Hammond, 726 F2d 483 (9^th Circuit 1984). Ray is a US Supreme Court case which held that the State of Washington could impose special local operational requirements on tankers entering Puget Sound, such as a requirement for tankers without double hulls to have tug escorts, but could not specify design, construction, and equipment standards for vessels, because these are preempted by comprehensive federal marine safety statutes. Note that the state could impose an "either-or" requirement - either have a double hull or have a tug escort when you show up here - even though it could not have required all tankers to have double hulls. Chevron is a US Court of Appeals case, applying the rules in Chevron, which held that the State of Alaska could require oily ballast not maintained in segregated tanks to be treated ashore even if the water met US federal standards for discharge. In addition, there is a specific provision in NISA 96, at 16 USC § 4725, which should be read to disavow Congressional intent to preempt state controls on ballast water.

^252. International Joint Commission and Great Lakes Fishery Commission, Exotic Species and the Shipping Industry: The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Ecosystem at Risk (Ann Arbor, MI: Great Lakes Fishery Commission, September 1990), pp. 11-14.

^253. Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), § 3.2, p. 7.

^254. Gauthier and Steel, ibid., § 5.2.1., p. 24.

^255. International Joint Commission and Great Lakes Fishery Commission, Exotic Species and the Shipping Industry: The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Ecosystem at Risk (Ann Arbor, MI: Great Lakes Fishery Commission, September 1990), recommendations on p. 9.

^256. US Public Law 101-646 (November 29, 1990), codified at 16 USC §§  4701 et seq.

^257. 16 USC § 4711(b).

^258. International Maritime Organization Marine Environment Protection Committee Resolution 50(31), 31^st Session (London: IMO, July 1991).

^259. A. Locke, D.M. Reid, W.G. Sprules, J.T. Carlton, and H.C. van Leeuwen, Effectiveness of Mid-Ocean Exchange in Controlling Freshwater and Coastal Zooplankton in Ballast Water, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Report 1822 (Burlington, ON: Great Lakes Laboratory, 1991).

^260. 58 Federal Register 18334 (April 8, 1993), adding 33 CFR Part 151, Subpart C, §§ 151.1500 et seq.

^261. Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), § 5.0, pp. 14-15.

^262. Resolution A.774(18), 18^th Assembly (London: IMO, November 4, 1993).

^263. Gauthier and Steel, supra, § 5.2.1., p. 25.

^264. US Public Law 104-332 (October 26, 1996), amending Public Law 101-646 (November 29, 1990), 16 USC §§ 4701 et seq.

^265. 16 USC § 4711(c), (e), and (f).

^266. Canadian DFO, Transport Canada, and US Coast Guard, 1996-1997 Binational Report on Protection of Great Lakes Water Quality, report to the International Joint Commission under Annex VI, § 2 of the GLWQA 1978/1987 (Cleveland, OH: US Coast Guard, October 14, 1997), §§ 240-242.2, pp. 17-21. A slightly amended version of the binational ballast water research strategy was also endorsed by the Great Lakes Commission Panel on Aquatic Nuisance Species in February 1998.

^267. 63 Federal Register 17782 (April 10, 1998).

^268. 64 Federal Register 26672 (May 17, 1999).

^269. Canadian Shipping Act, Revised Statutes of Canada, RS-9, § 657.1, as added October 31, 1998.

^270. 64 Federal Register 26672 (May 17, 1999).

^271. Daniel Gauthier and Deborah A. Steel, A Synopsis of the Situation Regarding the Introduction of Nonindigenous Species by Ship-Transported Ballast Water in Canada and Selected Countries, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences report 2380 (Mont-Joli, Québec: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1996), § 5.2.1, pp. 25-26.

^272. Gauthier and Steel, ibid., § 5.3.1, p. 31.

^273. Gauthier and Steel, ibid, § 5.3.1, pp. 31-32.

^274. Andrew N. Cohen, Ships' Ballast Water and the Introduction of Exotic Organisms into the San Francisco Estuary: Current Status of the Problem and Options for Management (Richmond, CA: San Francisco Estuary Institute, October 1998), Appendix C, pp. 64-65, citing B. Hayden, "A New Zealand Perspective on Ballast Water," in J.T. Carlton, ed., Ballast Water: Ecological and Fisheries Implications (Copenhagen: International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, in press).

^275. Cohen, ibid, Appendix C, pp. 65-67.

^276. Gauthier and Steel, supra, § 5.4. pp. 34-36.

^277. Vancouver Port Corporation, Ballast Water Exchange Program (Vancouver, BC: May 1997).

^278. Personal communication from the Vancouver Harbor Master. The port views the compliance problems as a matter of lack of knowledge of the requirements. Also, there is concern about the safety of exchange.

^279. Cohen, supra, Appendix C, p. 66, citing Alaska Legislative Resolve No. 85 (June 8, 1992).

^280. Presidential Memorandum (April 28, 1996), at 61 Federal Register 19507 (May 31, 1996).

^281. US Public Law 104-58 (November 28, 1995), § 201, amending 30 USC § 185(s).

^282. Hawaii Act 237, Relating to Harmful Aquatic Life (June 17, 1997), Laws 1997, Chapter 237, § 1.

^283. Hawaii Act 237, Relating to Harmful Aquatic Life (June 17, 1997), Laws 1997, Chapter 237, § 2(d).

^284. California Statutes 1992, Chapter 840, amending California Fish and Game Code §§ 6430-6439.

^285. California Fish and Game Code § 6432.

^286. California Fish and Game Code §§ 6433-6435.

^287. Andrew N. Cohen, Ships's Ballast Water and the Introduction of Exotic Organisms into the San Francisco Estuary: Current Status of the Problem and Options for Management (Richmond, CA: San Francisco Estuary Institute, October 1998), Appendix C, p. 66.

^288. California Fish and Game Code § 6439.

^289. California Assembly Bill, AB 703, to make amendments to the California Water Code, introduced by Assembly Member Lempert on February 24, 1999. It passed the Assembly and was under active consideration by the Senate Committee on Environmental Quality as of July 6, 1999.

^290. AB 703 § 2, making amendments to California Water Code at § 13275(i) (bill amended July 6, 1999).

^291. See Ray v. Atlantic Richfield Co., 435 US 151 (1978).

^292. See Ray, ibid., and Chevron USA, Inc. v. Hammond, 726 F2d 483 (9^th Circuit 1984).

^293. National Invasive Species Act of 1996, US Public Law 104-332 (October 26, 1996), making amendments to the Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act of 1990, US Public Law 101-646 (November 29, 1990), codified at 16 USC  §§ 4701 et seq.

^294. Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act of 1990, US Public Law 101-646 (November 29, 1990), codified at 16 USC  §§ 4701 et seq. "NANPCA 90" is used here to refer to the statute before the 1996 amendments in NISA 96.

^295. The final bill was HR 4283, substituting for similar bills introduced as HR 3217 (Congressman LaTourette of Ohio, Republican) and S 1660 (Senator Glenn of Ohio, Democrat), both of which had numerous co-sponsors from both parties, with amendments by the managers on the floor of the House (therefore never discussed in either hearings or committee reports) before final passage. The first version voted on, as HR 3217, which had already been amended to meet objections in the Senate, was passed in the House of Representatives by unanimous consent at 142 Congressional Record H10918-H10927 on September 24, 1996. The Senate objections, mainly objections from the shipping industry, were not satisfied. Without consideration in the Senate, it was brought back to the floor of the House as HR 4283, with further amendment, and passed by unanimous consent at 142 Congressional Record H12147-12152 on September 28, 1996. In that version it was brought to the Senate and passed by unanimous consent at 142 Congressional Record S12398-12401on October 3, 1996. It was signed by the President on October 26, 1996. Comments from the American Maritime Congress on the proposed nationwide guidelines relate the effects of industry lobbying to have the special safety exemption inserted at the last minute. Gloria Cataneo Tosi, American Maritime Congress, US Coast Guard NPRM Docket USCG-98-3423, Comment #57 (August 7, 1998), p. 5 of document, p. 3 of AMC enclosure.

^296. US Public Law 91-224 (April 3, 1970), with legislative history in House Public Works Committee, House Report No. 91-127, HR 4148 (March 25, 1969), at 1970 USCCAAN 2691, 2692. Although the original Federal Water Pollution Control Act was actually enacted in 1948 (62 Statutes 1155, June 30, 1948), and often amended after that, the 1970 amendments were significant, albeit inadequate, in adding "new sections on liability for cleaning up oil discharges, discharge of hazardous substances, discharge of sewage from vessels [and] demonstration projects for cleaning up pollution in the Great Lakes ..." Senate Public Works Committee, Senate Report No. 92-414, S 2770 [Public Law 92-500] (October 28, 1971), at 1972 USCCAAN 3668, 3670, which reviews the history of federal water pollution legislation from 1948 to 1972 at pp. 3669-3670. One of the most important provisions was the enactment of the principle of strict liability for the costs of oil spills, within low limits, whereas the previous legislation on oil spills applied only to spills which were grossly negligent or willful. House Public Works Committee (1969), ibid., at 1970 USCCAAN 2692.

^297. EPA v. California, 426 US 200, 203 (1976), quoting Senate Public Works Committee, Senate Report No. 92-414, S 2770 [Public Law 92-500] (October 28, 1971), at 1972 USCCAAN 3674.

^298. US Public Law 92-500 (October 18, 1972), codified at 33 USC §§ 1251 et seq., and now known commonly as the Clean Water Act, since amendments in US Public Law 95-217 (December 27, 1977), as well as the Federal Water Pollution Control Act. "Water pollution law today [in the US] begins with ..the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 ..." William H. Rodgers, Jr., Environmental Law (St. Paul, MN: West, 1994), § 4.1, p. 247. "For point sources, costs of achieving but the first levels of technological controls were enormous: $10 billion for municipalities, $36 billion for industry ..." Ibid. Although this was a system for permitting pollution, it was consciously designed to squeeze down the amount of pollution permitted over the years (with the unrealistic goal of near-virtual elimination by 1985). One of the most important features of the permitting system was that it was designed to be "technology-forcing." Ibid., § 1.4, p. 53. The other critical element of the regime was expansion of the principle of strict liability for the cost of all spills first established in 1970. (This also became the central element in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA), 42 USC §§ 9601 et seq., enacted in 1980.)

^299. See Theodora E. Colborn, Alex Davidson, Sharon N. Green, R.A. (Tony) Hodge, C. Ian Jackson, and Richard A. Liroff, Great Lakes: Great Legacy? (Washington, DC: Conservation Foundation, 1990), p. 3.

^300. The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA), US Public Law 96-510 (December 11, 1980), codified at 42 USC §§ 9601 et seq. The waste sites are discussed in House Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee, House Report No. 96-1016, HR 7020 (May 16, 1980), pp. 18-19.

^301.US Public Law 101-380 (August 18, 1990), which made amendments to the Clean Water Act (Federal Water Pollution Control Act), 33 USC §§ 1251 et seq., and other places. See the description of "operational and technological controls" imposed on the shipping industry by OPA 90 in William H. Rodgers, Jr., Environmental Law (St. Paul, MN: West, 1994), § 4.9E, pp. 387 et seq.

^302. Rodgers, supra, § 4.9, Table 4-13, p. 376, using information from Golob's Oil Pollution Bulletin.

^303. Everett C. Hunt and Boris S. Butman, Marine Engineering and Economics Cost Analysis (Centreville, MD: Cornell Maritime Press, 1995), p. 1-6.

^304. See § 2.3 above, and Glenn Zorpette, "Mussel Mayhem Continued: Apparent Benefits of the Zebra Mussel Plague are Anything But," Scientific American, vol. 275, no. 2 (August 1996), pp. 22-23. There are, of course, still lingering effects from the spill in Prince William Sound, including lack of full recovery of some native aquatic populations in 1999. But the basic fact is that those effects are limited in space and time. The zebra mussel is creating comparable injury to native habitats as it continues to spread across the North American Continent, and it only become worse with time.

^305. Environmental groups commenting on the proposed national guidelines under NISA generally agree that "in light of the significant problems posed by non-native species, the proposed regulations are inadequate for managing the threat of these species for several reasons." Warner Chabot and Michael Lozeau, Center for Marine Conservation, US Coast Guard NPRM Docket USCG-98-3423, Comment #27 (June 8, 1998), p. 1.

^306. 16 USC § 4711(a)-(b).

^307. 58 Federal Register 18334 (April 8, 1993), adding 33 CFR Part 151, Subpart C, §§ 151.1500 et seq.

^308. 16 USC § 4711(c)(1). All of the Congressional directions in the act are to "the Secretary of the department in which the Coast Guard is operating," a customary technicality which is understood to mean that the Coast Guard is the agency responsible for implementing them (just as the Canadian Parliament's authorization for regulations to be issued by the "Governor in council" is taken to mean the cabinet and responsible ministries).

^309. 16 USC § 4711(f)(1).

^310. 16 USC § 4711(f)(1) and (e)(1).

^311. 16 USC § 4711(f)(1) and (2)(A).

^312. 16 USC § 4711(e)(3).

^313. Republican from the 19^th District of Ohio, a diverse district on Lake Erie near Cleveland, Ohio, and an area sensitive to the impacts of exotics on the Western Basin of Lake Eire.

^314. 142 Congressional Record H10925 (September 24, 1996).

^315. 63 Federal Register 17782 (April 10, 1998).

^316. Interim rule with request for comments at 64 Federal Register 26672 (May 17, 1999). On June 16, 1998, in response to several requests from the shipping industry (along with strong objections to the guidelines) the Coast Guard had extended the comment period on the proposed guidelines until August 8, 1998. 63 Federal Register 32780 (June 16, 1998).

^317. Alex Bilney, International Chamber of Shipping, US Coast Guard NPRM Docket USCG-98-3423, Comment #54 (August 6, 1998), p. 2.

^318. Bilney, supra, p. 2.

^319. Bilney, supra, p. 3.

^320. Gloria Cataneo Tosi, American Maritime Congress, US Coast Guard NPRM Docket USCG-98-3423, Comment #57 (August 7, 1998), pp. 4-5 of document, pp. 2-3 of AMC enclosure. Similarly, the Chamber of Shipping of America argues that the master's decision "if made in good faith, should be absolute and not subject to challenge by the port state authorities," but goes on to say, "The Chamber, however, recognizes the need for some objective criteria which provides guidance to the US Coast Guard and the regulated community as to what constitutes a 'good faith' decision ..." Kathy J. Metcalf, Chamber of Shipping of America, US Coast Guard NPRM Docket USCG-98-3423, Comment #60 (August 6, 1998), p. 3.

^321. Gloria Cataneo Tosi, supra, p. 7 of document, p. 5 of AMC enclosure.

^322. The International Chamber of Shipping argues that "the emotive word 'pollution' should not be used." Bilney, supra, p. 4. The comment from the German Federation of Shipowners starts by arguing about the philosophical concept. "In the sense of the term 'pollution' the matter is not really pollution. Spread of aquatic nuisance species is a naturally occurring phenomenon. Marine creatures are free to move around the globe anyway, and nature will always create checks and balances in the medium and long term." German Federation of Shipowners (Verband Deutscher Reeder), US Coast Guard NPRM Docket USCG-98-3423, Comment #33 (June 12, 1998), p. 3. The German Federation of Shipowners goes on, however, to say that an exchange of "90% can surely be accepted as a practical target." Ibid.

^323. In the House at 142 Congressional Record H10918-H10927, re HR 3217 (September 24, 1996) and 142 Congressional Record H12147-12152, re HR 4283 (September 28, 1996). In the Senate at 142 Congressional Record S12398-12401, re HR 4283 (October 3, 1996).

^324. 33 CFR § 151.1514.

^325. Such advice was just provided in a report to the ANS Task Force, Alfred M. Beeton, James T. Carlton, Bridget A. Holohan, Glen H. Wheless, Arnoldo Valle-Levinson, Lisa A. Drake, Gregory Ruiz, Linda McCann, William Walton, Annette Frese, Paul Fofonoff, Scott Godwin, Jason Toft, Lisa Hartman, and Elizabeth von Holle, Ballast Exchange Study: Consideration of Back-Up Exchange Zones and Environmental Effects of Ballast Exchange and Ballast Release, report to National Sea Grant, NOAA, and EPA (Ann Arbor, MI: Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, November 1998). The report indicates, for example, that exchange may be appropriate as close as 100 kilometers (54 nautical miles) off the approach to Boston. Ibid, p. v., par. 16

^326. I personally participated in the resolution of most of those cases as the program staff officer in the Ninth Coast Guard District in Cleveland, in consultation with the operational commander in Buffalo. I report the results of some of these "problem vessel" cases in M. Eric Reeves, "Techniques for the Protection of the Great Lakes from Infection by Exotic Organisms in Ballast Water," in Frank M. D'Itri, Zebra Mussels and Aquatic Nuisance Species (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1997), pp. 283-299, 288-289, Table 1, notes a-e. One vessel, early on before my tenure, was allowed to salt up the tanks to meet the 30 ppt regulatory standard. We quickly declared that to be an insufficient treatment option for any future case. Two other vessels chlorinated their tanks, subject to approval of the local authorities, in Canada, where they discharged the residual water. (Follow-up testing confirmed a good kill.) One vessel, a chemical carrier, had the unusual capacity to shift the water to a heated cargo tank and cook it. (They got it above 60° C (140° F), in accordance with scientific advice.) One vessel which had chosen its own alternate exchange site without prior approval was allowed to proceed after biological testing confirmed the effectiveness of that exchange. And one vessel which had lied about conducting an exchange was forbidden to discharge, subject to a threat of criminal prosecution brought personally home to the master by a joint boarding of Canadian and US marine safety officers in Canadian territory, backed up by a US attorney in New York ready and willing to indict if the vessel failed the outgoing inspection. It passed. But the Canadians also levied a criminal fine for the false report on their exchange during entry into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. These cases illustrate both the seriousness of the Coast Guard's effort to enforce the regime and the creativity with which individual cases were worked out in negotiations with the industry. We may, however, have succeeded too well in convincing the industry they were going to dislike an expansion of the Great Lakes regime to the United States as a whole.

^327. 142 Congressional Record H10920 (September 24, 1996).

^328. 142 Congressional Record H10923-H10924 (September 24, 1996).

^329. 142 Congressional Record H12149 (September 28, 1996), and as codified at 16 USC § 4711(k).

^330. Congressman Oberstar, 142 Congressional Record H12146 (September 28, 1996).

^331. 142 Congressional Record H12146 (September 28, 1996).

^332. Democrat from 8^th District of Minnesota, and ranking minority member on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, which oversees the Coast Guard. The 8^th District includes Duluth, which is the largest port on the Great Lakes.

^333. 142 Congressional Record H12146 (September 28, 1996).

^334. 63 Federal Register 17782 (April 10, 1998), NPRM to amend 33 CFR Part 151. See preamble discussion at 63 Federal Register 17785, definition at page 17789 (proposed 33 CFR 151.1504), and substantive requirement, with evidentiary presumptions, at page 17789 (proposed 33 CFR 151.1508(a)(1)). By inventing this term of art, the Coast Guard was incurring the risk of creating an analogue to the infamous "best practicable control technology currently available (BPT)" and "best available technology economically achievable (BAT)" under the Clean Water Act. I plead guilty to being the one who came up with it.

^335. Again, I plead guilty to the offense.

^336. Interim rule with request for comments at 64 Federal Register 26672 (May 17, 1999).

^337. Canadian Shipping Act, Revised Statutes of Canada, RS-9, § 657.1, as added October 31, 1998.

^338. 16 USC  §§ 4701 et seq.

^339. Information on the history of the Canadian amendment, and the loss of the Flare, via personal communications from the Canadian Departments of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) and Transport (Transport Canada).

^340. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is a "specialized agency" of the United Nations, originally established as the "Inter-Governmental Maritime Consultation Organization" in 1948, a forum for consultation on matters of safety and prevention of pollution in shipping, and the forum in which most of the major international conventions on maritime safety and environmental protection are negotiated.

^341. Resolution A.774(18) of the IMO 20^th General Assembly (London: IMO, November 4, 1993). These were developed by a committee of IMO, the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), and a Ballast Water Working Group (BWWG) within that committee. The three nations with the primary interest in the su