| 6 | EMERGING ISSUES |
| 6.1 | Aboriginal People |
We give thanks to the spirit of the waters for our strength of well being. The waters of the world have provided to many; they quench thirst; provide food for plants and are the source of strength for many medicines we need. Once acknowledged, this too becomes a great power for those who seek this gift, for humans themselves are made of water. Now our minds are one, agreed.Okenten Karithwatehk-wen (in Benedict 1985)
These communities are the repositories of vast accumulations of traditional knowledge and experience that link humanity with its ancient origins. The starting point for a just and humane policy for such groups is the recognition and protection of their traditional right to the land and other resources that sustain their way of life-rights they may define in terms that do not fit into standard legal systems.
Our Common Future
World Commission on Environment and Development 1987The United States has a unique legal relationship with Indian Tribal governments as set forth in the Constitution of the United States, treaties, statutes, executive orders and court decisions. Since the formation of the union, the United States has recognized Indian tribes as domestic dependent nations under its protection. In treaties, our nation has guaranteed the right of Indian tribes to a self-government.
U.S. Executive Order 13084
Presidential Document May 14, 1998
Since the signing of the 1972 Agreement, the Commission has received numerous submissions, concerning Great Lakes matters, from aboriginal people living in the Great Lakes basin, as well as from First Nation, Indian Tribal governments and their organizations or institutions (Abbott, February 1998 unpublished report). During 1995-97, the IJC undertook four community consultations at Walpole Island, Akwesasne in Wisconsin and Michigan. In addition, aboriginal scientists from both countries have served and continue to serve on the Science Advisory Board (SAB) or its workgroups, and on the Council of Great Lakes Research Managers are often invited to participate as scientific experts at SAB-sponsored activities supported by the Commission. The Mohawk Council of Akwesasne has hosted two SAB meetings, most recently the 107th meeting of the SAB held September 3-4, 1997 at the St. Lawrence Institute of Environmental Sciences in Cornwall, Ontario.
On the occasion of the Science Advisory Board's 112th meeting, its Workgroup on Emerging Issues met with representatives and advisers of aboriginal organizations from both the United States and Canada. These included the U.S. Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, the Anishnabek Ontario Fisheries Resource Centre, the Walpole Island First Nations Heritage Centre and the Union of Ontario Indians. Policy advisers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Environment Canada were also present. The purpose of this meeting was to identify scientific issues affecting aboriginal uses of the Great Lakes and to identify how these could be addressed in terms of water-quality management and decision making under the Agreement. Two central issues emerged from the discussion: The values and uses of traditional knowledge and the involvement of First Nation, Indian and Tribal governments as governments with the Parties to the Agreement.
Traditional Ecological Knowledge
Aboriginal people in the Great Lakes basin have knowledge that is vital to the understanding of the Great Lakes ecosystems. Aboriginal people participate in Commission activities because of their personal and professional expertise. Their knowledge of their communities and areas also has proved to be very useful to the Commission and its boards. The board considers traditional ecological knowledge as an opportunity to enhance and complement traditional research methodologies and data sources.
In the Great Lakes, aboriginal people live on all of the most important water ways and interconnecting channels, as they have done for thousands of years. Their knowledge is important for understanding how these areas function. Traditional ecological knowledge available in aboriginal communities is being increasingly incorporated by academics and government agencies to complement traditional approaches to scientific discovery.
Traditional ecological knowledge contributes to scientific understanding in several unique and important ways. It often comprises the only historic record of the state of the Great Lakes prior to the extensive human settlement and development over the last two centuries. This knowledge offers a unique perspective in understanding the changes that have occurred in the basin ecosystem and the goals needed to achieve its restoration. Aboriginal people view nature as an interconnected web of life that includes humans, and therefore their culture is based on an extensive knowledge of the ecosystem upon which their survival and spiritual values historically depended. Such knowledge and experience now are critical to understanding the Great Lakes basin ecosystem. Finally, the understanding of impaired use by aboriginal people, because of cultural differences, differs from that of other groups. For example, aboriginal people may consume all edible parts of fish and wildlife, including the liver. Discernment of tainting of fish and wildlife flavour would differ for groups that consume muscle tissue only. Similarly, the assessment of degraded fish and wildlife populations could differ from the needs and historic use of natural stocks by aboriginal communities.
This unique perspective of aboriginal people is recognized by non-governmental organizations in the Great Lakes. Groups like the Sierra Club, Greenpeace and Great Lakes United are appointing aboriginal members to their boards and committees to assist these organizations to a more cooperative partnership with other Great Lakes residents. The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, over the years, has proven that it can work successfully with other organizations toward improved fish and wildlife management. The St. Lawrence River Institute of Environmental Science works in cooperation with the Mohawk Community of Akwesasne, the City of Cornwall and local industries to research and educate people about river environmental problems and their remediation. These groups are seeking to understand and acknowledge aboriginal interests in the Great Lakes, and are working to avoid any confrontation or conflict that might arise through misunderstanding.
Similarly, the role of the Commission to assess the Parties' progress under the Agreement, is enhanced by including traditional ecological knowledge. With the establishment of watershed boards for other boundary waters than the Great Lakes, the involvement of First Nation, Indian and Tribal governments becomes even more important. All of the boundary waters have associated aboriginal communities that rely upon water resources. Federal, provincial and state governments often fail to comprehend the impacts of their water policies on aboriginal people. Legal remedies and recent court cases have affirmed the rights and responsibilities of aboriginal people under Treaties, to the uses of and interest in the water, lands and resources of these areas.
The SAB recommends the following.
Further Indian and Tribal Governmental Involvement
In keeping with the use of traditional ecological knowledge to enhance and complement understanding of the Great Lakes basin ecosystem, it was clear from the representatives at the November 1998 meeting of the Workgroup on Emerging Issues that aboriginal interests related to the purpose of the Agreement are particularly significant in terms of the many small communities throughout the Great Lakes region and the extent of commercial and subsistence fishery activities that are affected by water quality concerns, especially related to human health. It also was noted that as governments, aboriginal and tribal leaders have limited direct opportunities to influence lake management decisions being made by other levels of government, even when they are directly affected by the decisions. Examples of several of these concerns include habitat loss from urban development; the effects of introductions of exotic species; loss of native fish species to introduced species that are preferred by sports anglers; the potential effects of commercial aquaculture on habitat and native fish species; sediment cleanup decision making and lack of action; and the perception of weak overall environmental management and enforcement records of senior governments in general. Because there is no institutional mechanism to address policy or program concerns of First Nation, Indian and Tribal governments, aboriginal people often deal directly with the management agencies of senior governments on an ad hoc basis. In terms of binational issues under the Agreement, Indian governments and organizations have tended to rely on the IJC to voice their concerns to the Parties.
When Administrator Carol M. Browner delineated EPA Indian Policy, she stated that "the core principle of the Policy, a commitment to working with federally recognized tribes on a government-to-government basis to enhance environmental protection, has been reaffirmed by President Clinton and remains the cornerstone of EPA's Indian Policy" (correspondence, the Administrator, U.S. EPA, March 14, 1994). A similar approach to recognize Indian self government, and through devolution to facilitate greater aboriginal involvement in environmental policy, also is being promoted within Environment Canada under its Aboriginal Policy Directorate. (Brant, personal communication November 1998).
In terms of the IJC's role under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 (International Joint Commission 1990) to prevent and resolve disputes, there is concern that First Nation, Indian and Tribal governments do not participate in the decision making process of the Parties on a governmental basis. While governmental linkages to implement the Agreement include, for example, the Water Quality Board, the Binational Executive Committee and the Canada-Ontario Agreement that foster binational cooperation, the involvement of First Nation, Indian and Tribal governments in Great Lakes decision making at comparable levels has not been evident to date.
Given their organizational capability, economic dependence on the fishery, exposure to toxic substances through consumption of Great Lakes fish and unique ecological knowledge of the lakes, Great Lakes First Nation, Indian and Tribal governments have a role to play with the Parties in their efforts under the Agreement. Their involvement as governments in Agreement activities is essential to achieving the purposes of the Boundary Waters Treaty.
The SAB recommends the following.
| 6.2 | Coupled Great Lakes Observation and Modeling System |
Great advances in science and technology have been made during the this century, that can now be applied in the 21st century, to study one of our world's most precious resources -- the Great Lakes. The lakes contain 20 percent of the world's fresh water and will undergo ever-increasing pressures from expanding population. Many problems will remain -- degraded water quality, contaminants, non-indigenous species, erosion, fishery recruitment, threats to biodiversity, consumptive uses and additional ones will undoubtedly appear. In order to apply a comprehensive ecosystem approach that reflects wise stewardship, new and more efficient methods will be needed.
The 20th Century, characterized by undersampling and reductionist approaches to understanding the Great Lakes, is now completing its course. New capabilities using computers, remote sensing, rapid communications and visualization technology, combined with the accumulated scientific knowledge and expertise of Great Lakes scientists, promise to advance the understanding of how the Great Lakes function and are affected by pollutants.
An early vision of the benefits and challenges of establishing a transboundary monitoring network was described by participants at an IJC workshop convened in October 1984, to explore in a conceptual manner, the need and possibilities for transboundary monitoring network. This work, along with other binational initiatives, such as the air component of Great Lakes International Surveillance Program (GLISP), eventually provided the groundwork and consensus for the establishment of Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN) in 1990. IADN is the only current binational monitoring program operating along the transboundary region, comprising a system of master stations on each lake, supplemented by substations established in critical locations. In its recent report The IJC and the 21st Century, the IJC noted that many of the basic scientific issues will remain, while the need for management and decision making capacity will increase. Such management needs will require sophisticated techniques and approaches to sustain the integrity of the Great Lakes and implement the Agreement. A comprehensive transboundary monitoring network will provide the following significant benefits:
In the early 1980s, Walter Munk, a distinguished physical oceanographer, published a paper Observing the Ocean in the 1990s (Munk and Wunsch 1982). In it, he discussed the scientific discoveries that would be possible by joint acoustic tomographic and satellite altimetric observations. The idea was to fuse oceanographic data from different sensors working on different time and spatial scales to achieve a whole greater than the sum of the individual parts. In response, the oceanographic community developed what is called ocean-platform-based measurements that form the basis for the scientific infrastructure that is currently used in ocean research today.
Perhaps the most dramatic example of the progression of experiments and experimental methods comes from the Toga-Tao array (tropical ocean global atmosphere tower array) and Enso (El Nino southern ocean oscillation) events. Early experiments designed to detect the periodic oscillation of warm equatorial water and the coupling with atmospheric models, led to the tremendous advances in our ability to predict the effects of El Nino and La Nina. Remarkable advances in technology have revolutionized and expanded the original ideas of Professor Munk. Electronic devices are getting smaller, cheaper and lighter and require less and less power. These developments, coupled with advances in sensors, batteries and hardware, have led to marked advances in instrumentation.
Ocean platforms and vehicles for instrument deployment have also become smaller, cheaper and more versatile; these platforms and vehicles include submarines, remotely operated vehicles and autonomous underwater vehicles. Geographic positioning systems provide real-time, all weather navigation and positioning capabilities.
The final report to Congress of the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (1999), Toward a U.S. Plan for an Integrated Sustained Ocean Observing System (http://core.cast.msstate.edu/chap1.html), concluded that while many observation and monitoring programs exist that serve the current needs of many users, their elements are not integrated, do not constitute a complete system and are not as cost-effective, nor as useful as they could be, even at present levels of funding. The development of a sustained observation program to detect, track and predict physical, chemical and biological changes in oceans is currently underway in the United States.
The scale of research needed to study the world's ocean systems and related international efforts to study global change, necessitates the use of bold and innovative approaches. The application of these techniques, however, to the realm of freshwater research has been modest to date. Nonetheless, technological development is occurring that indicates both the capability and feasibility of integrated and automated monitoring. The development of remote underwater sampling station, by Apprise Technologies Inc., semipermeable membrane devices (artificial fish) that bioaccumulate toxic substances, and the monitoring device developed by the Lambton Industrial Society to monitor spills in the St. Clair River, are a few of the practical examples that are currently in use.
These developments continue to result in substantial improvements in in-situ sensing -- for various physical, chemical, biological and geological parameters. A number of in-situ chemical and biological sensors are capable of measuring the following parameters: pH, O2, NO3-, fluorescence measurements for dissolved organic matter, proteins, and PAHs, CO2, ATP, Cl-, and F-. Several others are under development. Physical sensors, such as those for temperature, current fields, pressure, and conductivity, show continued improvement. Recent advances in molecular biology also hold some promise for biological and chemical sampling. As an example, it is probable that the DNA chip-technology soon will allow researchers to measure picomolar concentrations of chemical contaminants as well as identify types and concentrations of pathogens.
At the same time, there are challenges to overcome. The number of chemicals that presently can be determined in situ, particularly those that occur at low concentrations, is still small. Similarly, the number of biological parameters that can be determined remotely is limited. Increased understanding of the Great Lakes depends upon new analytical tools. Thus, rapid improvement in methods are needed, particularly with respect to sensors that can operate in situ and for extended time periods.
When combined with advances in communications capabilities, the potential exists to create integrated automated systems, that collect and report information on a real-time basis. Communication components include satellite links, the Internet and high-speed modems. For example, a new company headed by Gates and McCall will send 288 satellites in low earth orbits (LEO) by 2002. The combination of high-speed low-cost landlines (>155 mbps), with broadband satellite systems will be a model of the future fusing television, the web, radio and telephony. There will be an increasing capability to view the earth from space at increasingly better resolutions. Resolution is currently being refined from existing weather satellites at approximately 1.1 kilometers (.68 miles) and Landsat-7 at 30 metres (98.43 feet; colour) and 15 metres (49.21 feet; black and white), to new U.S., just released technology, of 0.82 metres (2.69 feet) resolution (Quick Bird). Additional sensors are presently planned, and will provide more detailed information on chlorophyll-a, sea-surface temperatures, turbidity, geoids, cloud cover, ice cover and many other parameters.
Concurrent with communication improvements have been the remarkable advances in computers. Moore's Law tells us that computational capabilities will double approximately every 18 months. There is no end in sight for this advance until 15 to 20 years from now, and by then, new technology may replace existing ones.
Finally, the field of visualization is now a bona fide academic endeavor. This is an area of tremendous importance for several reasons, but two stand out.
Operational observation systems that combine in situ and space derived observations of the Great Lakes in real time, will provide nowcasting and forecasting capabilities on a grand scale. In addition to providing seasonal and longer-term monitoring lake-atmosphere forecasts, the operation of these systems will offer significant capabilities for understanding, managing and protecting the aquatic ecosystem and its resources. Improved technology for measuring biological and physical parameters will enable scientists to make baseline observations that researchers, educators, environmental managers and IJC Commissioners can use at their desks. This capability could include a real-time satellite image (several bands from UV to IR), real-time temperature and current fields, wind speed, and lake-state data. They will be able to use the data with 3-D hydrodynamic models to predict the entire temperature and flow structures of a lake. Three-D physical models will serve as the basis for conveying information in manageable and realistic fashion. The models will be integrated so that they are capable of acquiring real-time physical data from the various hydrological and meteorological sensors. Data from measurements of in-situ chemical, biological and geological parameters can then be integrated into the physical model. Thus, it will be possible to produce accurate basic views of water temperature, wave height and current velocities -- all as a function of time. It also will be possible to have realistic calculations and observations of mass balances and transport of chemicals, eutrophic state, photosynthesis rates, fish populations, phytoplankton, zooplankton, bacteria and pathogens, as well as calculation of water budgets and levels. A powerful, integrated observational system would enable scientists to achieve a deeper understanding of the Great Lakes basin ecosystem and would also provide a sounder foundation for management decisions.
In order to move forward from the concept to an actual binational system for Great Lakes observation and modeling, the SAB recommends the following.
| 6.3 | Survey Results on Emerging Issues |
The Workgroup on Emerging Issues has undertaken several surveys to help identify emerging issues, in keeping with the mandate of the workgroup and the Science Advisory Board. During the 1993-95 biennial period, the workgroup solicited advice from the Agreement boards, and surveyed international agencies on emerging issues, (1993-1995 Priorities Report, pages 115-122) and broadened its respondents to include the public and International Association for Great Lakes Research (IAGLR) '97 participants in 1995-97 (1995-97 Priorities Report, pages 37-38). During the 1997-99 biennial cycle the workgroup continued its use of the survey, by posting an electronic format with a hotlink from the IJC homepage, and by specifically inviting State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conference (SOLEC) '98 participants to contribute their input. This was done through the cooperation of SOLEC organizers by placing a survey announcement in conference registration material and by making a hard copy version of the survey questionnaire available at the IJC's Indicators Implementation Task Force poster in the conference display area.
As in previous surveys, this survey was intended to be consultative, and was not designed for the results to be extrapolated to a general population. The issues are considered to reflect the knowledge and expertise of each of the respondents, however, most topics were defined to be in the categories of (a) governance/institutional or (b) social/economic/cultural. These categories were defined in the survey form in order to provide further clarity on each issue. Interestingly, the issues do not indicate that there is need for new scientific knowledge to address them, but rather, a need for a revised/strengthened Agreement, new protocols or further implementation of the Agreement. Although the total number of responses was limited, the submissions were thoughtful and included several respondents from outside of the Great Lakes basin. In terms of salience to the board, three of the issues identified by respondents are related to the 1999-2001 candidate priorities submitted by the board to the Commission: review of Annexes 3 (Control of Phosphorus) and 13 (Pollution from Non-Point Sources), long-term impact of land development and urban sprawl on Great Lakes water quality; and limits of current sewage treatment plant technology.
The summary of all responses is as follows:
| Issue | Category | Approach | Measure | |
| 1 | Improved education K-12 | Social | Revise Agreement | Program review/evaluation |
| 2 | Nonpoint source management related to urban growth | Governance | New PLUARG Reference | Policy analysis and program review/evaluation |
| 3 | Zero discharge related to long-range transport | Physical process | Strengthen GLWQA/Annex 15 | Policy analysis/improved monitoring |
| 4 | Better understanding of economic theory | Social | More study as in recommendation 19 of Ninth IJC Biennial Report | Policy analysis |
| 5 | Identify nonchemical stressors relative to chemical ones | Ecology | Implement existing Agreement | Multidisciplinary analysis involving industry |
| 6 | Eliminate persistent organic pollutants globally | Ecology | Implement existing Agreement, international protocols | Monitoring and assessment |
| 7 | Better sewage treatment plants and sewer infrastructure | Governance | Implement existing Agreement | Program review/evaluation |
| 8 | Virtual elimination of persistent toxic substances | Governance | Implement existing Agreement | Monitoring and assessment |
| 9 | Improve institutional arrangements to implement the GLWQA | Governance | Revise Agreement | Program review/evaluation; develop new criteria to assess institutional effectiveness |
| 10 | Urban sprawl, land management | Resource | Revise Agreement | Land-use control and monitoring |
| 11 | Contamination by pesticides | Physical process | Existing education | Monitor and regulate use |
| 12 | Development of gene chips | Physical process | New technology | Improved monitoring and health assessments |
It is evident that, while no single emerging issue was seen as outstanding, the responses do indicate a need to sustain effort in particular areas important for Agreement implementation.
As a strategy for eliciting public and scientific response to identify emerging issues, the workgroup views its use of surveys as an important opportunity for individuals to alert the board and the Commission of issues. Its value, therefore, lies in the consultative process. In terms of an approach to future research and analysis, however, it is recognized as only one technique of several that can assist the workgroup and the board. In its seminal work on Using Foresight to Protect the Environmental Future (U.S. EPA Science Advisory Board 1995a), the Environmental Futures Committee of the U.S. EPA SAB identified three basic techniques that can be used to gain insight on future conditions:
In addition to these techniques, six selection criteria were identified as a basis for determining major issues of importance. They are timing, novelty, scope, severity, visibility and probability (U.S. EPA SAB 1995a, b).
The workgroup intends to apply the concepts and insights developed by the Environmental Futures Committee to provide increased rigor to its own work on emerging issues on behalf of the SAB and the Commission. In its strategic plan approved in June 1998, the IJC stated that in order to sustain and enhance its operational capacity and effectiveness, that it must concentrate its attention, energies and expertise on issues that are of major significance [italics added] (IJC strategic plan, Objective 6, approved June 9, 1998). The early identification of such issues enables the Commission to fulfill its valuable alerting role with the governments, with a view to avoiding future water quality problems through coordinated action and response. Rather than prediction, per se, therefore, a major strength of future research and analysis is to provide a methodological framework that can be used to assess information, and influence decisions and actions, especially research agendas. (U.S. EPA SAB 1995a, b).
| 6.4 | An Emerging Risk from Nitrogen |
Recent studies give a basis for concern about environmental effects from the increasing levels of nitrogen in the lower Great Lakes and their tributaries. The problem is evident in the long-term increases in the concentrations of nitrate, and nitrite nitrogen in Erie and Ontario waters, for which data indicate a recent doubling. The trend is driven by moderately high levels of nitrogen in shallow ground water and streams due to the continuing applications of nitrogen fertilizers and the discharge of treated wastewater. Both lakes may now be beyond a doubling from historically very low background levels of nitrogen. Other studies, such as the work of Peierls et al. (1991), indicate up to 100-fold increases in nitrate concentrations in water at the mouth of large rivers draining industrialized or densely populated watersheds, and that phenomenon may need to be examined for the lower Great Lakes.
One well-documented example of the nitrate problem is from a freshwater system, the Illinois River, where mussel die-offs were shown to be probably due to ammonia generated during decomposition of excessively nitrogen-enriched biological productivity (Sparks and Dillon 1993). Recently, risks to amphibian species have been reported for Ontario streams by Rouse et al. (1999) at nitrate concentrations as low as 2.5 mg/L; the U.S. national water quality standard of 10.0 mg/L. Numerous papers have appeared on the apparent role of nitrogen in degrading coastal and estuarine resources and contributing to disease in Chesapeake Bay and other east-coast waters. In 1997, the Ecological Society of America published an Issue Paper on the causes and consequences of change in the global nitrogen cycle. Acidification of soils and waters, and the accelerated loss of biological diversity were among their principal concerns. Also in 1997, there was a full issue of the journal Ambio (Hessel 1997) devoted to problems attributable to nitrogen deposition in Europe. Other new research from Wisconsin indicates that exposure to herbicides and commercial nitrogen applications leads to effects on small mammals (Porter et al. 1999). Finally, in December 1998, a report Emerging Diseases as Indicators of Change - Marine Ecosystems (Epstein et al. 1998) was released. It focuses on diseases stimulated by nitrogen and other factors, but emphasizes effects on mussels, fish and mammals. A variety of mechanisms are involved, with many leading to risks to human health, and mostly involving nitrogen. Mechanisms include the elevated levels of toxic ammonia forms from decomposition processes; biological toxins from harmful algal blooms (due, in part, to eutrophication); and the suppression of disease defense mechanisms due to lowered carbon nitrogen ratios and related changes in cell metabolism.
Only limited information is available on these concerns for freshwater environments, but the observed trend and environmental effects indicate a need to broaden consideration of risks from nitrogen enrichment at sites within the Great Lakes. Surprises are inevitable in complex resource systems, challenging the state of our science and its role in supporting restoration of "the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the waters of the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem." The consequences of elevated nitrogen levels may be one of these surprises.