7.1	US National Research Council Report

In the discussion over global warming, while surface temperatures tended to increase, satellite measurements indicate that the temperature of the lower to -troposphere exhibited a smaller rise of 0.0 to 0.2 degrees Celsius. Estimates based on balloon-borne observations tend to agree with the satellite readings. Because of this dilemma, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Science was asked to determine if the recorded surface values were accurate.

In the last few months, the Council has issued a report stating that the warming of the Earth's surface is "undoubtedly real," given a rise in surface temperatures in the past two decades substantially greater than the average for the past 100 years. The report indicates that the global-mean temperature at the earth's surface has risen by 0.25 to 0.40 degrees Celsius during the last two decades.

In the opinion of the Council, the differences between the surface and upper air temperatures in no way invalidate the conclusion that the surface temperature of earth is rising. Actually, evidence suggests that the troposphere (lower atmosphere) may have warmed less rapidly then the surface from 1979 into the 90's, due to both human activities (stratospheric ozone depletion cools the upper troposphere, while the burning of coal and oil blocks the sun's heat rays from reaching the earth) and natural causes (volcanic eruptions).

The Council cautions that, although the temperature differences are real, temperature trends based on such short periods are not necessarily indicative of the long-term behavior of the climate system. Also, they did not ascribe these changes as an effect of greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing uncertainties in the evaluation of temperature trends would require:

• an improved climate monitoring system;
• making raw and processed atmospheric measurements accessible.

The report also offers a number of possible research strategies for improving the understanding of uncertainties and the relationship between surface and upper-air temperatures.

A study released June 29, 1999, by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change predicts that worldwide cuts in sulphur emissions to reduce acid rain would cause the average global temperature to rise. The sulphate particles have a reflective quality, which directs the sun's light rays back out into space away from Earth, resulting in a cooling effect. As more countries reduce their sulphur emissions around the world, the foundation claims that the sulphur blanket will weaken, and more heat energy will penetrate the atmosphere, eventually adding to the global warming effect.

This study suggests that the predicted warming of just the greenhouse gases alone will be magnified, increasing heat energy contacting the Earth's surface.

The effects predicted by the Pew Center study include:

• temperature extremes during warm weather will become more frequent;
• temperature extremes during cold weather will become less frequent;
• the frequency of torrential rainstorms, major snowstorms and other large precipitation events is likely to increase; and,
• the amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes is likely to increase.

The Pew Center on Global Climate concludes that the "data and likely impacts outlined in this study should encourage concrete steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

A review of available data has shown that the global mean surface temperatures have increased 0.6 - 1.2 ^o F since the late 19 ^th century. The 20 ^th century's 10 warmest years all occurred within the last 15 years. Corresponding with this warming, alpine glaciers have been retreating, sea levels have risen, and climatic regions are shifting.

Many physical and biological processes are climate dependent. Scientists expect long-term shifts in average climatic conditions and/or a change in the frequency of extreme climate events as a result of climate change; both will have significant direct and indirect impacts on lands, oceans and resources. The possible impacts of climate change as determined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are summarized below.

Key Impacts of Climate Change to Physical, Biological and Socioeconomic Systems

Ecosystems

• Increased temperatures could reduce sub-arctic ecosystems. Loss of migratory wildfowl, mammal breeding and forage habitats may occur within the tundra, which is projected to nearly disappear from mainland areas.
• The relatively certain northward shift of the southern boundary of permafrost areas will impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and wildlife in the altered areas through terrain slumping, increased sediment loadings to rivers and lakes, and dramatically altered hydrology.
• Elevated CO ₂ concentrations may alter the nitrogen cycle, drought survival mechanisms, and fire frequency - potentially decreasing forage quality and impacting forage production on rangelands.
• Arid lands may increase.
• Landslides and debris flows in unstable Rocky Mountain areas and possibly elsewhere could become more common.
• Forests may die or decline in density in some regions because of drought, pest infestations, and fire; and in other regions, forests may increase in both area and density.
• Geographic ranges of forest ecosystems are expected to shift northward and upward in altitude, but not as rapidly as the climate is projected to change.
• Longer forest fire seasons and potentially more frequent and larger fires are likely.

Hydrology and Water Resources

• Increases or decreases in annual runoff could occur over much of the lower latitudes and in -continental regions of and high latitudes.
• Climate projections suggest increased runoff in winter and early spring but reduced flows during summer in regions in which hydrology is dominated by snowmelt. Glaciers are expected to retreat, and their contributions to summer flows would decline as peak flows shift to winter or early spring.
• Altered precipitation and temperature regimes may cause lower lake levels, along with variability of water levels of wetlands.
• Increases in hydrological variability (larger floods and longer droughts) are likely to result in increased sediment loading and erosion, degraded shorelines, reductions in water quality, reduced water supply for dilution of point-source water pollutants and reduced stability of aquatic ecosystems.
• Projected increases in human demand for water could exacerbate difficulties associated with the management of water supply and quality.

Food and Fiber

• Climate modifications that lead to changes in daily and interannual variability in temperatures and, in particular, precipitation, will impact crop yields.
• The direct effects of a doubling of CO ₂ on crop yields are largely beneficial.
• Crop losses due to weeds, insects and diseases are likely to increase.
• The long-term stability of the forest-products market is uncertain.
• Projected increases in water temperature, changes in freshwater flows and mixing regimes, and changes in water quality could result in changes in the survival, reproductive capacity, and growth of freshwater fish and other species.
• Freshwater species distributions could shift northward, with widespread species extinction likely at lower latitudes and expansion at the higher latitudes.
• Recreational fishing could incur losses in some regions.
• Projected changes in water temperatures, as well as salinity and currents, can affect the growth, survival, reproduction, and spacial distribution of marine fish species and the competitors and predators that influence the dynamics of these species.

Coastal Systems

• In the next century, rising sea levels could inundate approximately 50 per cent of North American coastal wetlands and a significant portion of dry land areas that currently are less than 50cm above sea level.
• Rising sea levels are likely to increase flooding of low-lying coastal areas
• Saltwater is likely to intrude further inland and upstream.

Human Settlements and Industry

• Projected changes in climate could increase risks to property and human health/life as a result of changes in exposure to natural hazards.
• Climate warming could result in increased demand for cooling energy and decreased demand for heating energy, with the overall net effect varying among geographic regions.

Human Health

• Direct health effects include increased heat-related mortality and illness and the beneficial effects of milder winters on cold-related mortality.
• Climate warming may exacerbate respiratory disorders associated with reduced air quality.
• Changing climate conditions may lead to the northward spread of infectious diseases and potentially enhance transmission dynamics due to warmer ambient temperatures.

This section describes a number of observed phenomena related to recent warming trends, which may be indicative of some of the effects of a longer-term global warming should such a warming trend be verified. A study by the University of Washington determined that the Arctic ice has thinned about 40 per cent over the last 18 years; there is evidence that the thinning accelerated in the 1990's.

By studying aerial and satellite pictures, Canadian scientists have found a long-term decline in the area of the ice cap of about three per cent a decade since the year 1978. In some parts of the Canadian Arctic, the shrinkage is even more pronounced. In the Hudson Bay region, the area of ice has shrunk by more than 30 per cent since the year 1978. Because of this shrinkage and warming, polar bears are starving; the floes they need to carry them to their fishing grounds on the open sea have melted. Houses once built solidly on permafrost are falling into the sea, while others are split by the melting and cracking of the permafrost. Arctic ice is melting at an accelerated rate such that the North West Passage may be navigable by regular ships for part or all of the year in as little as 10 to 15 years.

Recent research, to be completed in the year 2002, indicates that the ocean water is both warmer that in the year 1975 and much less salty, which are both signs of rapid melting. The melting process is known as a 'positive feedback mechanism.' When ice is covered with snow, it reflects energy back up to the atmosphere, but when it starts to melt, the black of the water collects solar radiation and accelerates the process. As noted above, there are concerns about large scale flooding, drought and species extinction as a result of this melting.

In 1997, 160 countries drafted the Kyoto Protocol, which called for countries to severely reduce their emission of carbon dioxide (CO ₂ ) and five other gases, with a target of reducing emissions an average of five per cent below the 1990 levels (6 per cent for Canada, 7 per cent for the US and 8 per cent for the European Union (EU)). The magnitude of this challenge varies from region to region. For example Germany, with the integration of the former East Germany, has seen many major sources closed completely since 1990. However, Canada, has increased its CO ₂ emissions substantially since that time; some estimates indicate that a cut of 25 per cent would be required to meet its year 2010 emissions target. However, the Protocol would allow countries to meet their target levels by trading emissions commitments with other countries emitting less than their target.

In order for the developed nations to meet Kyoto targets, it is suggested that they:

• replace carbon-intensive fuels with fuels containing less or no carbon;
• seriously curtail the use of energy; and,
• reduce emissions, through the adoption and invention of new technology.

A recent article in the "Economist" (January 22, 2000) asked, 'What is the cost of carbon?'. Currently industries can emit carbon dioxide, the main agent suspected of causing global warming, free of charge, since there are no regulations specific to its control. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol seeks stringent restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions and advocates international trade in emissions to lower compliance costs. In anticipation of this and other possible regulations, a market has sprung up suggesting a price for carbon emissions. An emissions broker at Natsource, a leading over-the-counter broker of energy products, states that companies have already begun trading greenhouse gases, and the most recent trades have been at $1 to $3 per tonne.

The world's largest single trade in greenhouse gas emission reduction credits was concluded October 29, 1999, in Toronto, Canada. Ontario Power Generation (OPG), formerly known as Ontario Hydro, purchased credits equivalent to 2.5 million tonnes of CO ₂ from the US based Zahren Alternative Power Corporation. The company generated the credits through its collection and combustion of landfill gas (methane). Without methane collection systems, the gas would have vented into the atmosphere.

OPG has voluntarily committed to cap its greenhouse gas emissions at 26 million tons, its 1990 emission level, from the year 2000 and forward.

As the price of carbon rises, it is likely that more companies will become interested in cutting emissions. It is conceivable that the price of carbon could rise to a value between $15 and $30 per tonne. Some countries such as Japan, that have a comparatively more energy-efficient economy might not find such pricing attractive, but less efficient countries, such as US and Canada, may find it appealing.

Large businesses are realizing that, whatever happens under the Kyoto Protocol, emissions restrictions appear inevitable in the next 5 years. Royal Dutch/Shell, has promised to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to 10 per cent below their 1990 levels within 3 years. Apparently Shell has started to use shadow carbon prices, that is, all large investments are to be analyzed to see if they provide fair returns if carbon emissions are priced at $5, $20 or $40 per tonne.

Also, some investors in agriculture and forestry anticipate that the price of carbon emissions will rise to a much higher value. Drawing carbon dioxide out of the air and into the trees and plants (biomass) is the only known practical method to remove large quantities of greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. The final Kyoto treaty may include provisions to permit a trade in the carbon stored naturally in forests and farms (carbon 'sinks'), which may lead polluting companies to pay the owners of such carbon 'sinks' for emission credits to meet their own requirements. Large investment flows into rural areas are expected if the market for carbon management takes root and rises significantly.

Canada is one country that is severely challenged by the Kyoto Protocol. National greenhouse gas emissions are 9 per cent above the 1990 totals. Under the Kyoto protocol, Canada is to reduce emission levels to six per cent below 1990 levels by the year 2010. However, if Canada carries on at its present pace of economic growth, without implementing any climate change programs, they will miss their Kyoto target by at least 25 per cent in 2010. In recognition of this dilemma, in its most recent budget, the Canadian government has invested several million dollars in the development of strategies to cope with climate change.

Canada could fulfill at least part of its required carbon cuts by buying emissions allowances from other countries. Potential sellers would likely include Russia and Ukraine, because their industrial base has actually declined since 1990 and thus they are likely to have more emission credits than they can use domestically. However, some view this as a mechanism that would allow Canada to avoid action to reduce emissions from domestic sources.

Canada and other countries maintain they should receive emissions credits for proper forest management, because forests, in their use of carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, decrease its concentration in the atmosphere. Canada has also asked for credits for exporting nuclear reactors to developing countries, a plan which was rejected by many European countries because of unanswered questions about disposal of nuclear waste.

Australian firms have worked out a clever way to measure, and trade, the carbon dioxide stored in trees. Firms pay companies to plant and manage forests, and in return, receive tradable emission credits. Pacific Power and Delta Energy, two local firms, and Tokyo Electric Power Company have already committed themselves to such an arrangement.

In January, the World Bank launched the Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) which aims to set a figure on the cost of carbon emissions. Its objectives include:

i) High quality emission reductions

• The PCF is intended to invest in projects that will produce high quality greenhouse gas emission reductions that could be registered with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for purposes of the Kyoto Protocol.

ii) Knowledge

• The PCF would maximize the value of its experience by collecting, analyzing, and disseminating information and knowledge to NGO's, governments, private sector interests, and any other stakeholders involved in the climate change negotiations.

iii) Public-Private Partnership

• PCF will draw upon both public and private sectors, while demonstrating how insights and experience from both sectors can be pooled to mobilize additional resources to address global environmental concerns.

Some of the participants in the Fund are given in Table 14.

The PCF aims to invest in projects linked with green technologies, such as renewable energy and solar power, thus reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Reductions are to be verified by independent experts, and transferred as emission credits to the fund's investors, which include such companies as Electrabel of Belgium, several Japan utilities and various Nordic governments. The recent Canadian Federal budget announced a $15 million contribution to the fund.

Projects are selected and established by the World Bank. The first project will be to capture greenhouse gases (largely methane) from open landfills in Latvia, and use them to produce electricity.