In May 1999, a Binational Study Team was assembled by the International Joint Commission to transform the 1996 Scope of Work, which had been prepared by the International St. Lawrence Board of Control, into a detailed Plan of Study to review the operation of the structures controlling the flows and levels of the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence system. This will require investigation of the existing criteria within the Commission's Orders of Approval for these works and a determination of what would be required to establish new criteria for improved regulation of Lake Ontario, should the Commission so desire. The 1996 Scope of Work placed emphasis on wetlands and other environmental factors, and recreational boating interests; factors not previously addressed by the original plan. The Scope of Work had also concluded that future studies should evaluate existing criteria in order to see if modifications could be made incorporating operational experience and interest preferences which have been identified since the original plan was adopted. The IJC instructed that the Scope of Work serve as the basis for this new Plan of Study. In developing this document, experts were asked to provide input on wetlands, fisheries and the environment, recreational boating, coastal processes including erosion and flood potential, commercial navigation, hydropower, industrial, municipal and domestic water intakes, public information and education, and hydrologic modeling. The Study Team then assembled these inputs and proposals into an overall Plan of Study, with costing and timelines. The following are highlights of the input provided.

Data Collection

In order to assess the various interests and criteria, extensive data collection is required. For example, information needs for environmental assessments should be centered on collection of more thorough topographic/bathymetric data at an increased number of wetland sites, concurrent collection of plant community data to reflect changes that have occurred since the Levels Reference Study data collection in 1991, and collection of data relating to fish use and accessibility to wetland habitat. The investigation of flooding, erosion and other coastal processes, requires very detailed information about the shoreline, including the shoreline geomorphology and subaqueous geology, shoreline bathymetry, shoreline elevations, bluff heights and slope, land use and property values. Understanding impacts on recreational boating requires systematic surveys of all marina operators to obtain the physical layout and operation of facilities and to obtain the current distribution of required drafts of the existing users of these facilities. Surveys are also required to determine the characteristics of water intakes and shore wells including information about those dependent upon them and changes that have occurred since 1956 to ensure that domestic and industrial water usage is catalogued.

Data collection is required at specific sites, or on a continuous shoreline basis, depending on the particular interest investigated, along both shores of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River to Trois-Rivières. State-of-the-art data collection techniques are proposed, such as airborne laser-survey techniques, with geographic positioning systems (GPS), and geographic information systems (GIS).

The evaluations of impacts and effects associated with changing water levels will be based on historic recorded supply and lake level information. To the extent practical, possible future changes due to climate and demographics will be considered, and simulation techniques will also be utilized to gauge impacts and effects of possible future supply scenarios.

Evaluations

Several of the evaluations will require the development of investigative and predictive models which will assess the impact of changing levels on a particular interest. The output from each of these models will be evaluated to identify alternative approaches that meet, as nearly as possible, the needs of all interests (including the integrity of the ecosystem) while always respecting the requirements of the Boundary Waters Treaty and its Article VIII in particular.

It is proposed that new regulation plan(s) be developed and evaluated to determine to what degree they meet the new or modified criteria proposed as a result of the studies. If the regulation criteria are to be satisfied by the regulation plan for the chosen hydrologic design conditions, the criteria and regulation plan may have to be developed in concert. If the new plan does not have to fully satisfy completely each criterion, the criteria can be set prior to the plan development. If the plan cannot meet all of the criteria, a method of ranking the importance of proposed criteria, beyond that already provided for in the Treaty, must be developed to test plan changes and determine which plan best meets proposed criteria.

Since the needs and preferences of the various interests are different and at times in opposition, development of a more comprehensive set of criteria and a matching regulation plan satisfying all the interests will not be a simple task. There is a need to demonstrate what levels and flows are physically possible with the current physical regulatory works and channels, through simulation of regulation for the wide range of possible hydrologic conditions. An understanding of the reality and practicability of certain level or flow conditions could help promote better dialogue amongst the interest groups and the acceptance of the needs of others and the eventual needed compromise among the groups. It will be important that all interested parties appreciate that, within the constraints of the existing works and probable future supplies, it is highly unlikely that any new regulatory plan will be able to provide significant additional benefits to every interest group.

Project Management

It is proposed that the overall management of the multi year program of studies described herein be assigned to a Study Board created for that purpose by the Commission. The Study Board will then establish specific binational work groups which will be responsible for common data collection, as outlined in section 4.2 above, using the available expertise of the two nations and allocating resources accordingly. Study Teams will also be created for each of the "interests" identified in Part 6 of this Plan, in each case comprising a binational team from the various agencies, as a minimum, listed in Annex 1. Scheduling of their work will need to be coordinated through the Study Board. It will be the task of the overall Study Board, with input from each Study Team and the Interest Advisory Group outlined in Section 5.1, to then consider the differing outputs of each study area and bring these together in a coherent manner that allows for public discussion of the impacts and benefits of various regulation plans and criteria, always having in mind the priorities already established under Article VIII of the Boundary Waters Treaty.

The evaluation process will be iterative, beginning early on in the study process and continuing to its completion. It will involve the development and refinement of an evaluation methodology, workshops, public meetings, regulation plan development and testing. While some portions of the overall study will require data collection extending over four to five years in order to obtain an adequate baseline, others can be split into phases with data collection in the early years and scenario testing in latter years. It is expected that the last two years of this study will concentrate heavily on the development of criteria and an acceptable regulation plan. The challenge will be to develop criteria and regulation plans that recognize the interests of all groups, and which create improved benefits for some without significant negative impacts on others. A decision support methodology specific to this situation will need to be developed as a part of the proposed studies which recognizes the complexity of the impact and benefit distribution challenge inherent in regulation of the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system. It is anticipated that a number of trial regulation plans will need to be developed and considered by the Study Board, so as to allow the effects of any new or revised criteria to be described in a manner which the representatives of the various interests, the general public, and the Commission can fully appreciate.

Public Involvement

Public consultation is critical to the assessment of plan criteria. It is recognized that progress in addressing water levels issues is dependent in large part on public understanding of the causes of the water level problems, and the further understanding that most proposed solutions could have consequences for others. To achieve this understanding, it is recommended that the major interests and the relevant public be involved directly in the studies, by the formation of an Interest Advisory Group, described in section 5.1. This would allow individuals with diverse interests to find common ground on many aspects of the issues. The continuous involvement of all interests throughout the criteria review process is critical to the success of the study.

Upon completion of this work, the Study Board will then report to the Commission regarding the work carried out, its recommendations on any amendments or additions to the present criteria, and the recommended regulation plan to give effect to these criteria. The Commission, in turn, may wish to hold further public consultations prior to any decision to adopt, or otherwise, the Study Board's recommendations. Additional time for consideration of the Study Board's work by the Commission, or for further public consultations, cannot be accurately estimated at this point, and is therefore not included in the overall five year project schedule.

Cost Summary

The proposed study will define the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system thoroughly as an ecosystem and hydrologically in terms of its past history and potential future benefits or impacts, though at considerable cost. The full investigation of all factors will require five years to complete and is estimated to cost $10.07 million in U.S. dollars ($14.80 Cdn. equivalent) for work to be carried out within the United States plus $15.79 million in Canadian dollars ($10.74 U.S. equivalent) for work to be carried out within Canada. This converts to totals equivalent to 30.59 million Cdn. or $20.81 U.S.. The study would be conducted, and these funds spent by a series of binational teams, comprising subject matter specialists serving in their personal and professional capacities from various federal, state and provincial agencies, academia and private consultants, and by the stakeholders impacted by Lake Ontario regulation, with overall coordination by the binational Study Board.

Acknowledgment

This document could not have been developed without the assistance of dozens of individuals who responded expeditiously providing input and quickly establishing teams to define required studies.

Respectfully submitted by the Study Team:

Lieutenant Colonel Mark D. Feierstein	Michael Turner
Dr. Douglas A.Wilcox	André Carpentier
Thomas E. Brown	Robert H. Clark