Presentation - Adapting To Climate Change.  Joel Scheraga

Dr. Scheraga explained why decision makers in the Great Lakes basin must start implementing adaptation

strategies to address climate change.  According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

“Adaptation refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected stimuli or their

effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.”  In his presentation, Scheraga explained the

importance of adaptation, discussed basic considerations that should be taken into account when developing

adaptation strategies, and offered recommendations to the Great Lakes Water Quality Board.

The Importance of Adaptation

Climate change poses a range of potential risks and opportunities.  It is unclear how severe the impacts will be.

Society is moving into unchartered territory:  CO  levels are higher today than they have ever been during the

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course of human history and are only expected to increase.  Humans are playing a grand experiment with the

earth’s systems.  Greenhouse gas concentrations are building at a rate more rapid than anything humankind has

experienced before.

The projected effects of climate change (e.g. higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and rising

sea level) will exert impacts on a variety of systems that humans care about:  human health, agriculture, forests,

water resources, coastal areas, and species and natural areas.  In order to protect these systems, humans should

strive to develop a balanced portfolio of mitigation and adaptation strategies.  While mitigation is important, the

focus of the white paper is adaptation.  Some people are reluctant to talk about adaptation because of the fear

that efforts to implement adaptation strategies will detract from efforts to implement mitigation strategies.

However, the opposite may be true:  by implementing adaptation strategies, the public will become more aware

of climate change issues and press more forcefully for mitigation strategies.  Focussing on adaptation is also

justified because climate change is happening now, and changes will continue to occur even if mitigation

strategies are implemented today.  Thus, because change is unavoidable, it makes sense for people to do what

they can to build resilience and decrease vulnerabilities to impending changes.  Compared to natural systems,

humans are fortunate.  While nature can only react to changes, humans can anticipate and act to reduce the

negative effects that might result.  Humans can also take advantage of the positive opportunities that could

arise.  To expand, some climate change effects could be beneficial and it is foolish not to take advantage.

While some policymakers agree that adaptation makes sense, they find it difficult to act since there is so much

uncertainty about the rate and magnitude of climate change.  This is a difficult problem, but policymakers must

realize that failing to invest in adaptation today can leave regions vulnerable to severe consequences.  As time

goes on and the climate changes, it may become more difficult to protect sensitive systems.  In addition, if

policymakers fail to take climate change into account when designing new infrastructure, they may find

themselves stuck with obsolete infrastructure that is incapable of addressing future stressors.  When designing a

new combined sewer, for example, planners should take projected changes in precipitation patterns into

account.

Policymakers have asked the scientific community to make concrete predictions about climate change effects.

Some have asked scientists to attach probabilities to anticipated outcomes.  This type of information would help

policymakers make smart decisions about adaptation strategies.  While concrete predictions are difficult with

the tools currently available, useful information can be obtained by running scenarios, performing “what if”

analyses, and looking at historic analogs.  Information provided from these sources should give planners

sufficient information to at least start thinking about what needs to be done.  Efforts should be made to improve

methods for quantifying and displaying uncertainties and characterizing the implications for resource manage-

ment decisions.

Basic Considerations in the Development of Adaptation Strategies

Following is a primer on basic considerations that need to be taken into account when developing adaptation

strategies.

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